Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.62 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.62Odds
2
Value bet: Conegliano to win @ 3.20 – our chance 36% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultEste to win ✓40% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗58% · fair 1.71
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗65% · @1.62
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.68
Este vs Conegliano preview and prediction
The match
Conegliano travel to face Este in the Serie D Girone C on Sunday 4 October (14:00 WAT). Este are 8th with 16 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Conegliano sit 9th on 15 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Este's last 5: DLLLW Most recently they drew with Sandona 0–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Conegliano's last 5: LWWDL Most recently they lost to LME 0–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Conegliano arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 1.0 for Este and 0.9 for Conegliano. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Este 40%, draw 24%, Conegliano 36%.
Value angle: Conegliano to win at 3.20 – 36% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.62, above our fair price of 1.55, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Este 0–0 Conegliano. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Este40%fair 2.49 · @2.10
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @3.10
Conegliano36%fair 2.80 · @3.20
1.88Expected goals
0.98Este xG
0.90Conegliano xG
42%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–015%
1–015%
0–114%
1–113%
2–07%
2–17%
From our goals model: Este 1.0 – 0.9 Conegliano expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Este to win✓
40%
2.49
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
58%
1.71
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
56%
1.79
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
65%
1.55
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
52%
1.94
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
23%
4.29
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.68
–
Form
Este – last 6
DLLLWL
27 Sep
@ Sandona
0–0
D
20 Sep
vs Cjarlins Muzane
1–2
L
16 Sep
@ Clodiense
0–1
L
13 Sep
vs FC Obermais
0–1
L
6 Sep
@ Brian Lignano
2–0
W
17 May
@ Clodiense
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Conegliano – last 6
LWWDLL
27 Sep
vs LME
0–1
L
20 Sep
vs FC Obermais
1–0
W
16 Sep
@ Cjarlins Muzane
1–0
W
13 Sep
vs Bassano Virtus
0–0
D
6 Sep
@ Campodarsego
0–4
L
3 May
vs Altavilla
0–1
L
0.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Este and Conegliano.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Este vs Conegliano?
On our numbers Este have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Conegliano 36%.
How many goals will there be in Este vs Conegliano?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Este vs Conegliano?
Our predicted score is Este 0–0 Conegliano, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Este vs Conegliano?
Este vs Conegliano (Serie D Girone C) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
