Value bet: Gozzano to win @ 2.70 – our chance 40% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultGozzano to win ✗40% · @2.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · fair 1.98
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗9% · fair 10.81
Gozzano vs Ligorna preview and prediction
The match
The Serie D Girone A sees Gozzano take on Ligorna on Sunday 11 October, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT). Gozzano are 11th with 14 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Ligorna sit 5th on 18 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Gozzano's last 5: LWWDL Most recently they lost to Biellese 1–4 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Ligorna's last 5: WWWLL Most recently they beat Saluzzo 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 1 March 2026, finished Ligorna 0–1 Gozzano.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.4 for Gozzano and 1.3 for Ligorna. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 50%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Gozzano 40%, draw 23%, Ligorna 37%.
Value angle: Gozzano to win at 2.70 – 40% on our numbers against 37% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 50% chance at odds of 1.90. Predicted score: Gozzano 2–1 Ligorna. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Gozzano40%fair 2.49 · @2.70
Draw23%fair 4.34 · @3.25
Ligorna37%fair 2.72 · @2.30
2.71Expected goals
1.39Gozzano xG
1.32Ligorna xG
50%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Gozzano 1.4 – 1.3 Ligorna expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 50% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.90.
Who will win Gozzano vs Ligorna?
On our numbers Gozzano have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Ligorna 37%.
How many goals will there be in Gozzano vs Ligorna?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gozzano vs Ligorna?
Our predicted score is Gozzano 2–1 Ligorna, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Gozzano vs Ligorna?
Gozzano vs Ligorna (Serie D Girone A) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
