Serie D Girone A · ItalyImperia vs Biellese prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.36 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
Value bet: Biellese to win @ 2.44 – our chance 45% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Imperia 1.1 – 1.4 Biellese expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Biellese shade it despite being away from home – 45% to win, against 33% for Imperia.
Imperia have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.0 per game. Biellese have 16 points from their last 6 (5W 1D 0L), averaging 2.3 scored and 1.0 conceded. Biellese come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.5 goals (1.1 for Imperia, 1.4 for Biellese). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 53%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 0–1 (11%), 1–0 (9%).
In their last 1 meeting, Imperia have won 0, Biellese have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 73% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.28 is close to our fair price of 1.36. For a bigger price, Biellese to win at 2.44 is our value angle (45% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Biellese to win ✗ | 45% | 2.25 | 2.44 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 78% | 1.29 | – |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 53% | 1.88 | 1.84 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 71% | 1.40 | 1.29 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 53% | 1.88 | 1.75 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 73% | 1.36 | 1.28 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 44% | 2.29 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Biellese / FT Biellese ✗ | 25% | 4.03 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 11% | 9.06 | – |
Form
Imperia – last 6
| 4 Oct | @ Lascaris | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Sep | @ Alessandria | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Sep | vs Fezzanese | 2–0 | W |
| 16 Sep | vs Asti | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | @ Derthona | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Millesimo | 1–0 | W |
Biellese – last 6
| 7 Oct | vs Alessandria | 3–2 | W |
| 4 Oct | vs Gozzano | 4–1 | W |
| 27 Sep | @ Sestri Levante | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Chisola | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Sep | @ Bra | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs Ligorna | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
| 22 Mar 2026 | Imperia v Biellese | 0–1 |
Serie D Girone A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Alessandria | 11 | +12 | 30 |
| 2 |  Chisola | 11 | +12 | 21 |
| 3 |  Biellese | 11 | +10 | 21 |
| 4 |  Derthona | 11 | +1 | 19 |
| 5 |  Ligorna | 11 | +5 | 18 |
| 6 |  Millesimo | 11 | +6 | 17 |
| 7 |  Sanremese | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 8 |  Saluzzo | 11 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 |  Imperia | 11 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Asti | 11 | -2 | 14 |
| 11 |  Gozzano | 11 | -4 | 14 |
| 12 |  Sestri Levante | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 |  Borgosesia | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 |  Lascaris | 11 | -5 | 12 |
| 15 |  Fezzanese | 11 | -7 | 11 |
| 16 |  Bra | 11 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 |  Valenzana | 11 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 |  Celle Varazze | 11 | -15 | 4 |
More Serie D Girone A predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Imperia vs Biellese?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Imperia vs Biellese?
On our numbers Imperia have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Biellese 45%.
How many goals will there be in Imperia vs Biellese?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
When is Imperia vs Biellese?
Imperia vs Biellese (Serie D Girone A) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.