Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultTwente to win ✗61% · @1.63
Double chanceTwente or draw ✗85% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.77
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗79% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.16
Twente vs Qarabag preview and prediction
The match
The UEFA Europa Conference League sees Twente take on Qarabag on Thursday 20 August, kicking off at 19:00 (WAT) at De Grolsch Veste.
Form guide
Twente's last 5: WDLWL Most recently they beat PEC Zwolle 3–1 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.5 per game.
Qarabag's last 5: WWLDD Most recently they beat Şamaxı FK 3–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Qarabag arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 2.2 for Twente and 1.1 for Qarabag. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 58% and both teams to score at 59%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Twente 61%, draw 24%, Qarabag 15%.
Safer route: Twente or draw (85%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.77.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Twente 2–1 Qarabag. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Twente61%fair 1.64 · @1.63
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.85
Qarabag15%fair 6.65 · @5.10
3.27Expected goals
2.20Twente xG
1.07Qarabag xG
59%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
2–09%
1–19%
1–08%
3–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: Twente 2.2 – 1.1 Qarabag expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Twente to win✗
61%
1.64
1.63
Double chance
Twente or draw✗
85%
1.18
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.68
1.77 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
79%
1.26
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.72
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
1.38
Half-time result
Twente ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Twente / FT Twente✗
41%
2.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.16
–
Form
Twente – last 6
WDLWLD
16 Aug
vs PEC Zwolle
3–1
W
13 Aug
@ Dunajska Streda
3–3
D
9 Aug
@ Heerenveen
0–1
L
6 Aug
vs Dunajska Streda
6–0
W
2 Aug
@ Genk
1–2
L
30 Jul
@ Ferencvarosi TC
2–2
D
2.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Qarabag – last 6
WWLDDW
17 Aug
vs Şamaxı FK
3–1
W
13 Aug
vs Dynamo Kyiv
2–0
W
6 Aug
@ Dynamo Kyiv
0–1
L
30 Jul
@ CSKA Sofia
0–0
D
23 Jul
vs CSKA Sofia
0–0
D
16 Jul
@ Vestri
3–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Twente and Qarabag.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Twente vs Qarabag?
On our numbers Twente have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Qarabag 15%.
How many goals will there be in Twente vs Qarabag?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Twente vs Qarabag?
Our predicted score is Twente 2–1 Qarabag, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Twente vs Qarabag?
Twente vs Qarabag (UEFA Europa Conference League) kicks off on Thursday 20 August 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at De Grolsch Veste.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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