Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.10 – our chance 51% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFC Midtjylland to win ✓61% · @1.54
Double chanceFC Midtjylland or draw ✓83% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.77
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.76
FC Midtjylland vs HNK Rijeka preview and prediction
The match
HNK Rijeka travel to MCH Arena in the UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday 20 August (18:00 WAT) to face FC Midtjylland.
Form guide
FC Midtjylland's last 5: DWWWL Most recently they drew with Lyngby 1–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.3 conceded.
HNK Rijeka's last 5: LDWWW Most recently they lost to NK Varazdin 0–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.7 for FC Midtjylland and 0.7 for HNK Rijeka. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: FC Midtjylland 61%, draw 22%, HNK Rijeka 17%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.77.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 2.10 – 51% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.42. Predicted score: FC Midtjylland 1–0 HNK Rijeka. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FC Midtjylland61%fair 1.64 · @1.54
Draw22%fair 4.52 · @4.20
HNK Rijeka17%fair 5.88 · @5.50
2.44Expected goals
1.69FC Midtjylland xG
0.75HNK Rijeka xG
52%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–07%
From our goals model: FC Midtjylland 1.7 – 0.7 HNK Rijeka expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FC Midtjylland to win✓
61%
1.64
1.54
Double chance
FC Midtjylland or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.93
1.77
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.98
2.10 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.42
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FC Midtjylland / FT FC Midtjylland✓
37%
2.69
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.76
–
Form
FC Midtjylland – last 6
DWWWLW
16 Aug
@ Lyngby
1–1
D
13 Aug
vs Bohemians
3–2
W
6 Aug
@ Bohemians
2–0
W
2 Aug
vs AC Horsens
2–1
W
30 Jul
vs Beşiktaş
0–2
L
26 Jul
@ Sonderjyske
3–2
W
1.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
HNK Rijeka – last 6
LDWWWW
16 Aug
@ NK Varazdin
0–2
L
13 Aug
@ Ilves
1–1
D
6 Aug
vs Ilves
1–0
W
2 Aug
vs Rudes
2–1
W
30 Jul
@ Derry City
1–0
W
23 Jul
vs Derry City
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FC Midtjylland and HNK Rijeka.
What is the prediction for FC Midtjylland vs HNK Rijeka?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win FC Midtjylland vs HNK Rijeka?
On our numbers FC Midtjylland have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 22% and HNK Rijeka 17%.
How many goals will there be in FC Midtjylland vs HNK Rijeka?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FC Midtjylland vs HNK Rijeka?
Our predicted score is FC Midtjylland 1–0 HNK Rijeka, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is FC Midtjylland vs HNK Rijeka?
FC Midtjylland vs HNK Rijeka (UEFA Europa Conference League) kicks off on Thursday 20 August 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at MCH Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.