Good pick · fair odds 1.63 · bookmaker 1.90 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.90Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultMalaga to win ✗61% · @1.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✓87% · fair 1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · fair 1.89
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.23
AD Ceuta FC vs Malaga preview and prediction
The match
The Friendlies Clubs sees AD Ceuta FC take on Malaga on Friday 7 August, kicking off at 18:00 (WAT).
Form guide
AD Ceuta FC's last 5: WLWWD Most recently they beat Cadiz 3–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Malaga's last 5: WDDWD Most recently they beat Al-Arabi SC 4–2 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 1.2 for AD Ceuta FC and 2.1 for Malaga. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score in 53% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: AD Ceuta FC 25%, draw 13%, Malaga 61%.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Malaga to win – a 61% chance at odds of 1.90, above our fair price of 1.63, so there is value in it. Predicted score: AD Ceuta FC 1–2 Malaga. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
AD Ceuta FC25%fair 3.94 · @3.25
Draw13%fair 7.57 · @3.60
Malaga61%fair 1.63 · @1.90
3.27Expected goals
1.20AD Ceuta FC xG
2.07Malaga xG
53%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–210%
1–19%
0–28%
0–18%
1–37%
2–26%
From our goals model: AD Ceuta FC 1.2 – 2.1 Malaga expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Malaga to win✗
61%
1.63
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
87%
1.15
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.89
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.67
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
59%
1.70
–
Half-time result
Malaga ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Malaga / FT Malaga✗
37%
2.74
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.23
–
Form
AD Ceuta FC – last 6
WLWWDD
29 Jul
@ Cadiz
3–1
W
26 Jul
@ Sevilla
1–2
L
30 May
vs Albacete
1–0
W
24 May
@ FC Andorra
2–0
W
9 May
vs Castellón
1–1
D
10 Apr
vs Real Sociedad II
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Malaga – last 6
WDDWDD
6 Aug
vs Al-Arabi SC
4–2
W
30 Jul
vs Al-Ittihad FC
2–2
D
25 Jul
vs Leicester
3–3
D
20 Jun
@ Almeria
2–1
W
14 Jun
vs Almeria
0–0
D
10 Jun
vs Las Palmas
1–1
D
2.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AD Ceuta FC and Malaga.
Our pick is Malaga to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.90.
Who will win AD Ceuta FC vs Malaga?
On our numbers AD Ceuta FC have a 25% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Malaga 61%.
How many goals will there be in AD Ceuta FC vs Malaga?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AD Ceuta FC vs Malaga?
Our predicted score is AD Ceuta FC 1–2 Malaga, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is AD Ceuta FC vs Malaga?
AD Ceuta FC vs Malaga (Friendlies Clubs) kicks off on Friday 7 August 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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