Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.62 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.62Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultLeganes to win ✓65% · @1.62
Double chanceLeganes or draw ✓86% · fair 1.16
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓58% · fair 1.74
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 6.97
Leganes vs Mérida AD preview and prediction
The match
Mérida AD travel to face Leganes in the Friendlies Clubs on Friday 7 August (18:00 WAT).
Form guide
Leganes's last 5: WLLWD Most recently they beat Al-Rayyan SC 2–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Mérida AD's last 5: LLLWD Most recently they lost to Benfica B 0–4 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 5. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Leganes arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.8 for Leganes and 0.7 for Mérida AD. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 42%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Leganes 65%, draw 21%, Mérida AD 14%.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Leganes to win – a 65% chance at odds of 1.62, above our fair price of 1.54, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Leganes 1–0 Mérida AD. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Leganes65%fair 1.54 · @1.62
Draw21%fair 4.77 · @3.70
Mérida AD14%fair 7.12 · @4.33
2.56Expected goals
1.85Leganes xG
0.71Mérida AD xG
42%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Leganes 1.8 – 0.7 Mérida AD expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Leganes to win✓
65%
1.54
1.62 ▲
Double chance
Leganes or draw✓
86%
1.16
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
58%
1.74
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.95
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
–
Half-time result
Leganes ahead at half-time✓
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leganes / FT Leganes✓
41%
2.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
6.97
–
Form
Leganes – last 6
WLLWDD
4 Aug
vs Al-Rayyan SC
2–1
W
1 Aug
@ Swansea
0–1
L
28 Jul
@ Real Madrid
1–4
L
24 Jul
@ Penafiel
2–0
W
22 Jul
@ Nacional
0–0
D
17 Jul
vs Albacete
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Mérida AD – last 6
LLLWDL
25 Jul
@ Benfica B
0–4
L
9 May
@ Barakaldo
0–2
L
24 Apr
@ Arenas Getxo
0–2
L
19 Apr
@ Arenteiro
2–0
W
20 Mar
@ Athletic Club II
1–1
D
13 Mar
vs Guadalajara
1–4
L
0.7Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leganes and Mérida AD.
Our pick is Leganes to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Leganes vs Mérida AD?
On our numbers Leganes have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Mérida AD 14%.
How many goals will there be in Leganes vs Mérida AD?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leganes vs Mérida AD?
Our predicted score is Leganes 1–0 Mérida AD, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Leganes vs Mérida AD?
Leganes vs Mérida AD (Friendlies Clubs) kicks off on Friday 7 August 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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