Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 57% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultZira to win ✗52% · @1.32
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.10
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗76% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗9% · fair 11.11
Paide vs Zira preview and prediction
The match
Paide host Zira in the UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday 23 July, with kick-off at 17:00 (WAT) at Parnu Rannastaadion.
Form guide
Paide's last 5: LWDWD Most recently they lost to Laagri 2–5 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Zira's last 5: WWLWL Most recently they beat Torpedo Kutaisi 3–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.4 for Paide and 1.3 for Zira. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 57%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Paide 25%, draw 23%, Zira 52%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.95 – 57% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Paide 1–1 Zira. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Paide25%fair 4.02 · @7.80
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @4.90
Zira52%fair 1.93 · @1.32
2.65Expected goals
1.38Paide xG
1.28Zira xG
57%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Paide 1.4 – 1.3 Zira expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Zira to win✗
52%
1.93
1.32
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.10
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.75
1.95 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.89
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
1.45
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Paide / FT Paide✗
23%
4.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
9%
11.11
–
Form
Paide – last 6
LWDWDW
19 Jul
@ Laagri
2–5
L
16 Jul
vs Hegelmann Litauen
3–0
W
9 Jul
@ Hegelmann Litauen
1–1
D
4 Jul
vs Vaprus
3–1
W
28 Jun
@ Kalju Nomme
1–1
D
21 Jun
@ Flora Tallinn
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Zira – last 6
WWLWLD
16 Jul
@ Torpedo Kutaisi
3–0
W
8 Jul
vs Torpedo Kutaisi
3–0
W
23 May
@ Araz
2–3
L
17 May
vs Sumqayıt
2–1
W
13 May
@ Sabah FA
1–2
L
8 May
@ Imisli FK
0–0
D
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Paide and Zira.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Paide vs Zira?
On our numbers Paide have a 25% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Zira 52%.
How many goals will there be in Paide vs Zira?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Paide vs Zira?
Our predicted score is Paide 1–1 Zira, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Paide vs Zira?
Paide vs Zira (UEFA Europa Conference League) kicks off on Thursday 23 July 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Parnu Rannastaadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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