Value bet: Draw @ 3.25 – our chance 43% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +40%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultDraw ✓43% · @3.25
Double chanceFK Tobol Kostanay or draw ✓74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✓13% · fair 7.84
Panevėžys vs FK Tobol Kostanay preview and prediction
The match
The UEFA Europa Conference League sees Panevėžys take on FK Tobol Kostanay on Thursday 23 July, kicking off at 16:30 (WAT) at Aukštaitija Stadium.
Form guide
Panevėžys's last 5: LDLLW Most recently they lost to Kauno Žalgiris 0–3 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 2.2 conceded.
FK Tobol Kostanay's last 5: DWLWL Most recently they drew with Kyzyl-Zhar 1–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
FK Tobol Kostanay arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Panevėžys and 1.2 for FK Tobol Kostanay. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 54%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Panevėžys 26%, draw 43%, FK Tobol Kostanay 31%.
Safer route: FK Tobol Kostanay or draw (74%) at 1.30.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Draw at 3.25 – 43% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Panevėžys 1–1 FK Tobol Kostanay. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Panevėžys26%fair 3.84 · @3.30
Draw43%fair 2.31 · @3.25
FK Tobol Kostanay31%fair 3.25 · @2.10
2.52Expected goals
1.30Panevėžys xG
1.23FK Tobol Kostanay xG
54%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
2–18%
0–08%
1–28%
From our goals model: Panevėžys 1.3 – 1.2 FK Tobol Kostanay expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✓
43%
2.31
3.25 ▲
Double chance
FK Tobol Kostanay or draw✓
74%
1.35
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.84
1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.80
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.31
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Panevėžys / FT Panevėžys✗
22%
4.55
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1✓
13%
7.84
–
Form
Panevėžys – last 6
LDLLWL
11 Jul
@ Kauno Žalgiris
0–3
L
4 Jul
vs Hegelmann Litauen
1–1
D
29 Jun
vs Suduva Marijampole
1–2
L
23 Jun
@ Minija
1–2
L
20 Jun
vs Šiauliai
3–2
W
16 Jun
@ FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0–3
L
1.0Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
FK Tobol Kostanay – last 6
DWLWLW
18 Jul
@ Kyzyl-Zhar
1–1
D
12 Jul
vs Okzhetpes
3–1
W
4 Jul
@ Altay
0–1
L
28 Jun
vs Altay
3–1
W
21 Jun
@ Okzhetpes
1–2
L
13 Jun
vs Kyzyl-Zhar
2–0
W
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Panevėžys and FK Tobol Kostanay.
What is the prediction for Panevėžys vs FK Tobol Kostanay?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Panevėžys vs FK Tobol Kostanay?
On our numbers Panevėžys have a 26% chance of winning, the draw 43% and FK Tobol Kostanay 31%.
How many goals will there be in Panevėžys vs FK Tobol Kostanay?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Panevėžys vs FK Tobol Kostanay?
Our predicted score is Panevėžys 1–1 FK Tobol Kostanay, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Panevėžys vs FK Tobol Kostanay?
Panevėžys vs FK Tobol Kostanay (UEFA Europa Conference League) kicks off on Thursday 23 July 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Aukštaitija Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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