FAW Championship · WalesPenrhyncoch vs Gresford Athletic prediction & analysis
Penrhyncoch to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.95 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Penrhyncoch 2.2 – 1.2 Gresford Athletic expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Penrhyncoch are clear favourites at home with a 64% chance of winning, against 24% for Gresford Athletic.
Penrhyncoch have taken 1 points from their last 6 matches (0W 1D 5L), scoring 0.5 and conceding 3.2 per game. Gresford Athletic have 4 points from their last 6 (1W 1D 4L), averaging 0.8 scored and 2.8 conceded.
We expect around 3.5 goals (2.2 for Penrhyncoch, 1.2 for Gresford Athletic). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–1 (10%), 1–1 (9%), 2–0 (8%).
Our pick is Penrhyncoch to win at a 64% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.95 is better than our fair price of 1.57, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Penrhyncoch to win ✗ | 64% | 1.57 | 1.95 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 87% | 1.14 | 1.22 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 63% | 1.58 | 1.40 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 86% | 1.16 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 67% | 1.48 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 54% | 1.84 | – |
| Half-time result | Penrhyncoch ahead at half-time ✗ | 45% | 2.21 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Penrhyncoch / FT Penrhyncoch ✗ | 39% | 2.58 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 10% | 10.42 | – |
Form
Penrhyncoch – last 6
| 25 Sep | @ Ruthin Town | 0–2 | L |
| 15 Sep | vs Bala Town | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Bangor City 1876 FC | 1–5 | L |
| 5 Sep | @ Buckley Town | 0–5 | L |
| 31 Aug | @ Guilsfield | 0–4 | L |
| 28 Aug | vs Denbigh Town | 2–2 | D |
Gresford Athletic – last 6
| 26 Sep | vs Rhyl | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | @ Guilsfield | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Mold Alexandra | 1–5 | L |
| 31 Aug | @ Llanuwchllyn | 0–2 | L |
| 21 Aug | @ Bala Town | 0–3 | L |
| 16 Aug | vs Brickfield Rangers | 0–5 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Penrhyncoch and Gresford Athletic.
FAW Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Brickfield Rangers | 14 | +19 | 34 |
| 2 |  Newtown AFC | 13 | +19 | 30 |
| 3 |  Porthmadog | 14 | +7 | 27 |
| 4 |  Mold Alexandra | 13 | +15 | 25 |
| 5 |  Bala Town | 14 | +3 | 24 |
| 6 |  Caersws | 13 | +10 | 23 |
| 7 |  Bangor City 1876 FC | 13 | +15 | 22 |
| 8 |  Guilsfield | 14 | +1 | 18 |
| 9 |  Buckley Town | 14 | 0 | 15 |
| 10 |  Holyhead Hotspur | 13 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 |  Llanuwchllyn | 14 | -9 | 15 |
| 12 |  Denbigh Town | 13 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 |  Rhyl | 14 | -3 | 13 |
| 14 |  Ruthin Town | 13 | -12 | 12 |
| 15 |  Gresford Athletic | 12 | -26 | 7 |
| 16 |  Penrhyncoch | 13 | -34 | 1 |
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Aberystwyth Town3Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Penrhyncoch vs Gresford Athletic?
Our pick is Penrhyncoch to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Penrhyncoch vs Gresford Athletic?
On our numbers Penrhyncoch have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Gresford Athletic 24%.
How many goals will there be in Penrhyncoch vs Gresford Athletic?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
When is Penrhyncoch vs Gresford Athletic?
Penrhyncoch vs Gresford Athletic (FAW Championship) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.