FAW Championship · WalesCaersws vs Bala Town prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
Value bet: Caersws to win @ 2.75 – our chance 40% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Caersws 1.8 – 1.7 Bala Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Caersws and Bala Town on our numbers – 40% for the home side, 38% for the visitors and 21% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Caersws have taken 12 points from their last 6 matches (4W 0D 2L), scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.5 per game. Bala Town have 9 points from their last 6 (3W 0D 3L), averaging 1.7 scored and 2.0 conceded.
We expect around 3.5 goals (1.8 for Caersws, 1.7 for Bala Town). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (9%), 2–1 (8%), 1–2 (8%).
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 67% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.44 is close to our fair price of 1.48. For a bigger price, Caersws to win at 2.75 is our value angle (40% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Caersws to win ✗ | 40% | 2.48 | 2.75 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 79% | 1.27 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 67% | 1.48 | 1.44 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 87% | 1.15 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 68% | 1.46 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 53% | 1.89 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 36% | 2.78 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Caersws / FT Caersws ✗ | 24% | 4.15 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 8% | 12.24 | – |
Form
Caersws – last 6
| 26 Sep | @ Llanuwchllyn | 5–2 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Brickfield Rangers | 0–2 | L |
| 4 Sep | @ Ruthin Town | 3–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | vs Buckley Town | 2–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | @ Porthmadog | 3–1 | W |
| 15 Aug | @ Rhyl | 2–4 | L |
Bala Town – last 6
| 26 Sep | vs Mold Alexandra | 2–4 | L |
| 15 Sep | @ Penrhyncoch | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Sep | @ Denbigh Town | 2–5 | L |
| 5 Sep | @ Porthmadog | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Aug | vs Newtown AFC | 0–1 | L |
| 28 Aug | @ Rhyl | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Caersws and Bala Town.
FAW Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Brickfield Rangers | 14 | +19 | 34 |
| 2 |  Newtown AFC | 13 | +19 | 30 |
| 3 |  Porthmadog | 14 | +7 | 27 |
| 4 |  Mold Alexandra | 13 | +15 | 25 |
| 5 |  Bala Town | 14 | +3 | 24 |
| 6 |  Caersws | 13 | +10 | 23 |
| 7 |  Bangor City 1876 FC | 13 | +15 | 22 |
| 8 |  Guilsfield | 14 | +1 | 18 |
| 9 |  Buckley Town | 14 | 0 | 15 |
| 10 |  Holyhead Hotspur | 13 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 |  Llanuwchllyn | 14 | -9 | 15 |
| 12 |  Denbigh Town | 13 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 |  Rhyl | 14 | -3 | 13 |
| 14 |  Ruthin Town | 13 | -12 | 12 |
| 15 |  Gresford Athletic | 12 | -26 | 7 |
| 16 |  Penrhyncoch | 13 | -34 | 1 |
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Aberystwyth Town3Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Caersws vs Bala Town?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Caersws vs Bala Town?
On our numbers Caersws have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Bala Town 38%.
How many goals will there be in Caersws vs Bala Town?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on our projection.
When is Caersws vs Bala Town?
Caersws vs Bala Town (FAW Championship) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.