Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.16 – our chance 50% vs 46% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultShinnik Yaroslavl to win ✓54% · @1.97
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.31
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.89
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.18
Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Leningradets preview and prediction
The match
The First League sees Shinnik Yaroslavl take on Leningradets on Sunday 19 July, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT) at Stadion Shinnik. Shinnik Yaroslavl are 7th with 26 points from 17 games (in the top half), while Leningradets sit 13th on 18 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Shinnik Yaroslavl's last 5: DDDWD Most recently they drew with FC Sochi 2–2 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Leningradets's last 5: LLDWW Most recently they lost to FC UFA 0–3 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Shinnik Yaroslavl arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.8 for Shinnik Yaroslavl and 1.1 for Leningradets. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score in 57% of our simulations.
Value angle: Over 2.5 goals at 2.16 – 50% on our numbers against 46% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.32. Predicted score: Shinnik Yaroslavl 1–1 Leningradets. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Shinnik Yaroslavl54%fair 1.84 · @1.97
Draw22%fair 4.52 · @3.22
Leningradets23%fair 4.27 · @3.84
2.96Expected goals
1.84Shinnik Yaroslavl xG
1.12Leningradets xG
57%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–110%
1–010%
2–09%
3–16%
1–26%
From our goals model: Shinnik Yaroslavl 1.8 – 1.1 Leningradets expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Shinnik Yaroslavl to win✓
54%
1.84
1.97 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.31
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.76
1.89 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.32
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
50%
2.00
2.16 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.19
Half-time result
Shinnik Yaroslavl ahead at half-time✗
40%
2.50
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Shinnik Yaroslavl / FT Shinnik Yaroslavl✗
34%
2.98
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.18
–
Form
Shinnik Yaroslavl – last 6
DDDWDW
12 Jul
vs FC Sochi
2–2
D
30 Jun
@ CSKA Moscow
1–1
D
11 May
vs Torpedo Moskva
1–1
D
4 May
@ Ural
1–0
W
22 Apr
@ Fakel
2–2
D
12 Apr
@ Volga Ulyanovsk
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Leningradets – last 6
LLDWWL
11 Jul
@ FC UFA
0–3
L
4 Jul
@ Dinamo Makhachkala
0–3
L
13 Jun
@ Veles
1–1
D
7 Jun
vs Torpedo Miass
3–1
W
31 May
@ Tekstilshchik
2–0
W
27 May
vs Volgar Astrakhan
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Shinnik Yaroslavl and Leningradets.
What is the prediction for Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Leningradets?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.32.
Who will win Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Leningradets?
On our numbers Shinnik Yaroslavl have a 54% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Leningradets 23%.
How many goals will there be in Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Leningradets?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Leningradets?
Our predicted score is Shinnik Yaroslavl 1–1 Leningradets, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Leningradets?
Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Leningradets (First League) kicks off on Sunday 19 July 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Shinnik.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
