Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund prediction & analysis
66%
Footrivo pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.53 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultBorussia Dortmund to win ✗62% · @1.57
Double chanceEither team to win ✗82% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗66% · @1.53
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗71% · fair 1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.80
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund preview and prediction
The match
The Bundesliga sees Union Berlin take on Borussia Dortmund on Saturday 17 October, kicking off at 14:30 (WAT). Union Berlin are 16th with 7 points from 9 games (in the bottom three), while Borussia Dortmund sit 2nd on 21 points (in the top four). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Union Berlin's last 5: WLLLD Most recently they beat SV Elversberg 1–0 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 3.2 conceded.
Borussia Dortmund's last 5: LDWWW Most recently they lost to BodoGlimt 0–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Borussia Dortmund arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.7 goals: 1.3 for Union Berlin and 2.4 for Borussia Dortmund. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score in 66% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Union Berlin 20%, draw 18%, Borussia Dortmund 62%.
Both teams to score: yes (66%) at 1.53.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 66% chance at odds of 1.53. Predicted score: Union Berlin 1–2 Borussia Dortmund. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Union Berlin20%fair 5.07 · @4.80
Draw18%fair 5.47 · @4.20
Borussia Dortmund62%fair 1.61 · @1.57
3.70Expected goals
1.30Union Berlin xG
2.40Borussia Dortmund xG
66%Both score
71%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–29%
1–18%
1–37%
0–27%
2–26%
0–16%
From our goals model: Union Berlin 1.3 – 2.4 Borussia Dortmund expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Borussia Dortmund to win✗
62%
1.61
1.57
Double chance
Either team to win✗
82%
1.22
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
66%
1.51
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
88%
1.13
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
51%
1.98
–
Half-time result
Borussia Dortmund ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Borussia Dortmund / FT Borussia Dortmund✗
40%
2.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.80
–
Form
Union Berlin – last 6
WLLLDW
10 Oct
vs SV Elversberg
1–0
W
18 Sep
@ Bayern München
0–7
L
11 Sep
vs FC Schalke 04
1–3
L
5 Sep
@ Bayer Leverkusen
0–4
L
29 Aug
vs Eintracht Frankfurt
3–3
D
23 Aug
@ Eintracht Braunschweig
4–2
W
1.5Scored / game
3.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Borussia Dortmund – last 6
LDWWWW
14 Oct
@ BodoGlimt
0–1
L
9 Oct
vs Werder Bremen
2–2
D
19 Sep
@ VfB Stuttgart
1–0
W
12 Sep
vs SC Paderborn 07
3–0
W
8 Sep
vs Villarreal
3–2
W
5 Sep
@ 1899 Hoffenheim
3–2
W
2.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund.
What is the prediction for Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
On our numbers Union Berlin have a 20% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Borussia Dortmund 62%.
How many goals will there be in Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our predicted score is Union Berlin 1–2 Borussia Dortmund, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund (Bundesliga) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
