Bundesliga · Germany · Allianz ArenaBayern München vs RB Leipzig prediction & analysis
Bayern München to win
Strong pick · fair odds 1.47 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Bayern München 2.7 – 1.3 RB Leipzig expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Bayern München are clear favourites at home with a 68% chance of winning, against 15% for RB Leipzig.
Bayern München have taken 12 points from their last 6 matches (3W 3D 0L), scoring 3.2 and conceding 1.0 per game. RB Leipzig have 9 points from their last 6 (3W 0D 3L), averaging 2.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
We expect around 4.0 goals (2.7 for Bayern München, 1.3 for RB Leipzig). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 2–1 (9%), 3–1 (8%), 2–0 (7%).
In their last 1 meeting, Bayern München have won 1, RB Leipzig have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 4.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Bayern München to win at a 68% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is close to our fair price of 1.47.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Bayern München to win ✓ | 68% | 1.47 | 1.22 |
| Double chance | Bayern München or draw ✓ | 85% | 1.18 | 1.06 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 67% | 1.49 | 1.36 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 91% | 1.10 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 76% | 1.31 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Over 3.5 goals ✓ | 57% | 1.77 | – |
| Half-time result | Bayern München ahead at half-time ✓ | 52% | 1.92 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Bayern München / FT Bayern München ✓ | 46% | 2.15 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 9% | 11.54 | – |
Form
Bayern München – last 6
| 13 Oct | @ Viking | 3–3 | D |
| 10 Oct | @ FC Augsburg | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Sep | vs Union Berlin | 7–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | @ SV Elversberg | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Sep | vs BodoGlimt | 5–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | @ FC Schalke 04 | 0–0 | D |
RB Leipzig – last 6
| 13 Oct | vs PSV Eindhoven | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Eintracht Frankfurt | 6–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | @ Bayer Leverkusen | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Hamburger SV | 5–0 | W |
| 10 Sep | @ Como | 1–4 | L |
| 5 Sep | @ Werder Bremen | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
| 15 Aug 2026 | Bayern München v RB Leipzig | 3–1 |
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 9 | +20 | 21 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 9 | +9 | 21 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 9 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 |  RB Leipzig | 9 | +14 | 18 |
| 5 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 9 | +3 | 16 |
| 6 |  Werder Bremen | 9 | +2 | 15 |
| 7 |  SV Elversberg | 9 | -1 | 13 |
| 8 |  VfB Stuttgart | 9 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 9 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 9 | -5 | 12 |
| 11 |  Hamburger SV | 9 | -10 | 12 |
| 12 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 9 | -1 | 10 |
| 13 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 9 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 |  FC Augsburg | 9 | 0 | 9 |
| 15 |  1. FC Köln | 9 | -4 | 9 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 9 | -14 | 7 |
| 17 |  FC Schalke 04 | 9 | -6 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 9 | -13 | 4 |
More Bundesliga predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Bayern München vs RB Leipzig?
Our pick is Bayern München to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Bayern München vs RB Leipzig?
On our numbers Bayern München have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 17% and RB Leipzig 15%.
How many goals will there be in Bayern München vs RB Leipzig?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on our projection.
When is Bayern München vs RB Leipzig?
Bayern München vs RB Leipzig (Bundesliga) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Allianz Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.