Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.80 – our chance 61% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLa Roche VF to win ✓44% · @2.35
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗9% · fair 10.79
Thionville Lusitanos vs La Roche VF preview and prediction
The match
Thionville Lusitanos host La Roche VF in the National 1 on Saturday 26 September, with kick-off at 19:45 (WAT) at Stadium Plaine. Thionville Lusitanos are 11th with 16 points from 12 games (in the bottom half), while La Roche VF sit 1st on 27 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Thionville Lusitanos's last 5: DLDDW Most recently they drew with Fleury 91 1–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.8 conceded.
La Roche VF's last 5: WDDWD Most recently they beat Valenciennes 3–2 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
La Roche VF arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.3 for Thionville Lusitanos and 1.5 for La Roche VF. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 61%.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.80 – 61% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Thionville Lusitanos 1–1 La Roche VF. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Thionville Lusitanos35%fair 2.83 · @2.62
Draw21%fair 4.76 · @3.25
La Roche VF44%fair 2.29 · @2.35
2.77Expected goals
1.29Thionville Lusitanos xG
1.47La Roche VF xG
61%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–19%
1–29%
1–08%
2–18%
0–27%
From our goals model: Thionville Lusitanos 1.3 – 1.5 La Roche VF expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
La Roche VF to win✓
44%
2.29
2.35
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.64
1.80 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.96
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.33
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.41
–
Half-time / full-time
HT La Roche VF / FT La Roche VF✗
24%
4.09
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
9%
10.79
–
Form
Thionville Lusitanos – last 6
DLDDWW
19 Sep
@ Fleury 91
1–1
D
12 Sep
vs Rouen
0–4
L
5 Sep
@ Concarneau
2–2
D
29 Aug
vs Gobelins
1–1
D
20 Aug
@ Bourg-en-bresse 01
2–0
W
14 Aug
vs Caen
4–3
W
1.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
La Roche VF – last 6
WDDWDW
19 Sep
vs Valenciennes
3–2
W
12 Sep
@ Villefranche
0–0
D
5 Sep
vs Quevilly
1–1
D
29 Aug
@ Orleans
1–0
W
20 Aug
vs Cannes
1–1
D
14 Aug
@ Amiens
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Thionville Lusitanos and La Roche VF.
What is the prediction for Thionville Lusitanos vs La Roche VF?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Thionville Lusitanos vs La Roche VF?
On our numbers Thionville Lusitanos have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 21% and La Roche VF 44%.
How many goals will there be in Thionville Lusitanos vs La Roche VF?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Thionville Lusitanos vs La Roche VF?
Our predicted score is Thionville Lusitanos 1–1 La Roche VF, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Thionville Lusitanos vs La Roche VF?
Thionville Lusitanos vs La Roche VF (National 1) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadium Plaine.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
