Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultBastia to win ✗40% · @2.35
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.70
Gobelins vs Bastia preview and prediction
The match
Gobelins host Bastia in the National 1 on Saturday 26 September, with kick-off at 19:45 (WAT) at Stade Pele. Gobelins are 9th with 16 points from 12 games (in the top half), while Bastia sit 13th on 15 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Gobelins's last 5: DLDDW Most recently they drew with Bourg-en-bresse 01 1–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Bastia's last 5: DWLWL Most recently they drew with Cannes 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Bastia arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.0 for Gobelins and 1.1 for Bastia. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 60% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Gobelins 35%, draw 24%, Bastia 40%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.00.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Gobelins 1–1 Bastia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Gobelins35%fair 2.82 · @2.80
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @3.10
Bastia40%fair 2.48 · @2.35
2.16Expected goals
1.03Gobelins xG
1.13Bastia xG
51%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–113%
1–012%
0–012%
1–28%
0–27%
From our goals model: Gobelins 1.0 – 1.1 Bastia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bastia to win✗
40%
2.48
2.35
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.95
2.00
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
66%
1.51
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bastia / FT Bastia✗
21%
4.70
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.70
–
Form
Gobelins – last 6
DLDDWL
19 Sep
vs Bourg-en-bresse 01
1–1
D
12 Sep
@ Caen
0–2
L
5 Sep
vs Aubagne
0–0
D
29 Aug
@ Thionville Lusitanos
1–1
D
20 Aug
vs Valenciennes
2–1
W
14 Aug
@ Villefranche
0–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Bastia – last 6
DWLWLW
17 Sep
vs Cannes
1–1
D
12 Sep
@ Bourg-en-bresse 01
1–0
W
5 Sep
vs Amiens
0–3
L
27 Aug
@ Caen
1–0
W
20 Aug
vs Versailles
2–3
L
14 Aug
@ Aubagne
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Gobelins and Bastia.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Gobelins vs Bastia?
On our numbers Gobelins have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Bastia 40%.
How many goals will there be in Gobelins vs Bastia?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gobelins vs Bastia?
Our predicted score is Gobelins 1–1 Bastia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Gobelins vs Bastia?
Gobelins vs Bastia (National 1) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade Pele.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
