Value bet: Concarneau to win @ 1.90 – our chance 58% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultConcarneau to win ✓58% · @1.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.32
Concarneau vs Villefranche preview and prediction
The match
Concarneau host Villefranche in the National 1 on Thursday 20 August, with kick-off at 19:45 (WAT) at Stade Guy Piriou. Concarneau are 6th with 20 points from 12 games (in the top half), while Villefranche sit 16th on 8 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Concarneau's last 5: DLWWW Most recently they drew with Quevilly 1–1 away. They average 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Villefranche's last 5: WLLLW Most recently they beat Gobelins 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Concarneau arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.7 for Concarneau and 0.9 for Villefranche. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 56%.
Value angle: Concarneau to win at 1.90 – 58% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Concarneau 1–1 Villefranche. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Concarneau58%fair 1.73 · @1.90
Draw21%fair 4.76 · @3.30
Villefranche21%fair 4.73 · @3.70
2.68Expected goals
1.75Concarneau xG
0.93Villefranche xG
56%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–16%
From our goals model: Concarneau 1.7 – 0.9 Villefranche expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Concarneau to win✓
58%
1.73
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.79
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.42
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Concarneau / FT Concarneau✓
35%
2.86
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.32
–
Form
Concarneau – last 6
DLWWWD
14 Aug
@ Quevilly
1–1
D
7 Aug
vs Orleans
0–2
L
31 Jul
vs Pontivy GSI
5–1
W
25 Jul
@ Laval
2–1
W
22 Jul
@ Guingamp
1–0
W
18 Jul
@ Stade Brestois 29
2–2
D
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Villefranche – last 6
WLLLWD
14 Aug
vs Gobelins
2–0
W
7 Aug
@ Bourg-en-bresse 01
2–3
L
15 Jul
@ Grenoble
2–5
L
24 Apr
@ Caen
0–3
L
17 Apr
vs Gobelins
3–1
W
10 Apr
@ Stade Briochin
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Concarneau and Villefranche.
What is the prediction for Concarneau vs Villefranche?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Concarneau vs Villefranche?
On our numbers Concarneau have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Villefranche 21%.
How many goals will there be in Concarneau vs Villefranche?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Concarneau vs Villefranche?
Our predicted score is Concarneau 1–1 Villefranche, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Concarneau vs Villefranche?
Concarneau vs Villefranche (National 1) kicks off on Thursday 20 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade Guy Piriou.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
