Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultCaen to win ✓61% · @1.70
Double chanceCaen or draw ✓81% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗80% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.20
Caen vs Aubagne preview and prediction
The match
The National 1 sees Caen take on Aubagne on Thursday 20 August, kicking off at 19:45 (WAT). Caen are 3rd with 22 points from 12 games (in the top four), while Aubagne sit 17th on 7 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Caen's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to Thionville Lusitanos 3–4 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 5. Goals have not been a problem: 3.2 per game.
Aubagne's last 5: LLLLL Most recently they lost to Bastia 0–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Caen arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 2.2 for Caen and 1.1 for Aubagne. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Caen 61%, draw 21%, Aubagne 19%.
Safer route: Caen or draw (81%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.62.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 80% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Caen 2–1 Aubagne. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Caen61%fair 1.65 · @1.70
Draw21%fair 4.83 · @3.60
Aubagne19%fair 5.34 · @4.20
3.31Expected goals
2.17Caen xG
1.14Aubagne xG
60%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
1–19%
2–09%
1–08%
3–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: Caen 2.2 – 1.1 Aubagne expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Caen to win✓
61%
1.65
1.70
Double chance
Caen or draw✓
81%
1.23
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.68
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.42
Half-time result
Caen ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Caen / FT Caen✗
39%
2.55
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.20
–
Form
Caen – last 6
LWDWWL
14 Aug
@ Thionville Lusitanos
3–4
L
7 Aug
vs Valenciennes
4–0
W
31 Jul
vs Dieppe
1–1
D
25 Jul
vs Al Wakrah
4–1
W
18 Jul
vs Laval
4–2
W
15 Jul
vs Gobelins
3–4
L
3.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Aubagne – last 6
LLLLLL
14 Aug
vs Bastia
0–1
L
7 Aug
vs Thionville Lusitanos
0–3
L
11 Jul
@ Montpellier
2–3
L
1 May
vs Stade Briochin
1–2
L
24 Apr
@ Rouen
1–3
L
17 Apr
vs Orleans
0–2
L
0.7Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Caen and Aubagne.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Caen vs Aubagne?
On our numbers Caen have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Aubagne 19%.
How many goals will there be in Caen vs Aubagne?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Caen vs Aubagne?
Our predicted score is Caen 2–1 Aubagne, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Caen vs Aubagne?
Caen vs Aubagne (National 1) kicks off on Thursday 20 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
