Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Thionville Lusitanos prediction & analysis
80%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
O2.5
Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.80 – our chance 60% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultThionville Lusitanos to win ✓47% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗64% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.26
Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Thionville Lusitanos preview and prediction
The match
Thionville Lusitanos travel to Stade Marcel-Verchere in the National 1 on Thursday 20 August (19:45 WAT) to face Bourg-en-bresse 01. Bourg-en-bresse 01 are 18th with 6 points from 12 games (in the bottom three), while Thionville Lusitanos sit 11th on 16 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Bourg-en-bresse 01's last 5: LWLDL Most recently they lost to Valenciennes 0–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Thionville Lusitanos's last 5: WWDWD Most recently they beat Caen 4–3 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 3.0 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Thionville Lusitanos arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.5 goals: 1.6 for Bourg-en-bresse 01 and 1.9 for Thionville Lusitanos. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 60% and both teams to score at 64%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Over 2.5 goals at 1.80 – 60% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 80% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Bourg-en-bresse 01 1–1 Thionville Lusitanos. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Bourg-en-bresse 0131%fair 3.21 · @2.88
Draw22%fair 4.56 · @3.20
Thionville Lusitanos47%fair 2.13 · @2.25
3.50Expected goals
1.56Bourg-en-bresse 01 xG
1.94Thionville Lusitanos xG
64%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–19%
1–29%
2–17%
2–27%
0–16%
1–36%
From our goals model: Bourg-en-bresse 01 1.6 – 1.9 Thionville Lusitanos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Thionville Lusitanos to win✓
47%
2.13
2.25 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
64%
1.57
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.67
1.80 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
1.35
Half-time result
Thionville Lusitanos ahead at half-time✓
37%
2.71
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Thionville Lusitanos / FT Thionville Lusitanos✓
29%
3.45
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.26
–
Form
Bourg-en-bresse 01 – last 6
LWLDLL
14 Aug
@ Valenciennes
0–2
L
7 Aug
vs Villefranche
3–2
W
22 Jul
vs Dijon
1–2
L
11 Jul
@ Grenoble
0–0
D
24 Apr
@ Sochaux
1–2
L
17 Apr
vs Caen
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Thionville Lusitanos – last 6
WWDWDW
14 Aug
vs Caen
4–3
W
7 Aug
@ Aubagne
3–0
W
18 Jul
vs Nancy
2–2
D
11 Jul
@ Progres Niederkorn
5–0
W
29 Mar
vs Beauvais
1–1
D
25 Mar
@ Blois
3–0
W
3.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bourg-en-bresse 01 and Thionville Lusitanos.
What is the prediction for Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Thionville Lusitanos?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Thionville Lusitanos?
On our numbers Bourg-en-bresse 01 have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Thionville Lusitanos 47%.
How many goals will there be in Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Thionville Lusitanos?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Thionville Lusitanos?
Our predicted score is Bourg-en-bresse 01 1–1 Thionville Lusitanos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Thionville Lusitanos?
Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Thionville Lusitanos (National 1) kicks off on Thursday 20 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade Marcel-Verchere.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
