Good pick · fair odds 1.71 · bookmaker 1.85 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.85Odds
2
Value bet: Amorebieta to win @ 3.30 – our chance 33% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBergantiños to win ✓43% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.85
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.86
Bergantiños vs Amorebieta preview and prediction
The match
Bergantiños host Amorebieta in the Segunda División RFEF Group 1 on Sunday 13 September, with kick-off at 16:00 (WAT). Bergantiños are 4th with 18 points from 10 games (in the top four), while Amorebieta sit 7th on 16 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Bergantiños's last 5: WDWLW Most recently they beat Leioa 5–0 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.8 goals a game.
Amorebieta's last 5: DLWDW Most recently they drew with Arosa 2–2 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.0 goals: 2.1 for Bergantiños and 1.9 for Amorebieta. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score in 58% of our simulations.
Value angle: Amorebieta to win at 3.30 – 33% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 58% chance at odds of 1.85, above our fair price of 1.71, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Bergantiños 2–1 Amorebieta. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Bergantiños43%fair 2.31 · @2.10
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @2.90
Amorebieta33%fair 3.01 · @3.30
4.00Expected goals
2.13Bergantiños xG
1.87Amorebieta xG
58%Both score
76%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–18%
1–17%
2–27%
1–27%
3–16%
3–25%
From our goals model: Bergantiños 2.1 – 1.9 Amorebieta expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bergantiños to win✓
43%
2.31
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.31
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.71
1.85 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
91%
1.10
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
–
Half-time result
Bergantiños ahead at half-time✓
37%
2.73
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bergantiños / FT Bergantiños✓
28%
3.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.86
–
Form
Bergantiños – last 6
WDWLWL
9 Sep
vs Leioa
5–0
W
6 Sep
@ Gernika
2–2
D
3 May
@ Sámano
5–0
W
26 Apr
vs UD Ourense
1–3
L
5 Apr
@ Real Valladolid II
4–3
W
29 Mar
vs Coruxo
0–1
L
2.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Amorebieta – last 6
DLWDWW
6 Sep
vs Arosa
2–2
D
8 Aug
vs Athletic Club II
0–1
L
3 May
@ Mutilvera
2–0
W
26 Apr
vs Sestao River
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ Deportivo Alavés II
2–1
W
29 Mar
vs Eibar II
2–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bergantiños and Amorebieta.
What is the prediction for Bergantiños vs Amorebieta?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Bergantiños vs Amorebieta?
On our numbers Bergantiños have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Amorebieta 33%.
How many goals will there be in Bergantiños vs Amorebieta?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bergantiños vs Amorebieta?
Our predicted score is Bergantiños 2–1 Amorebieta, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is Bergantiños vs Amorebieta?
Bergantiños vs Amorebieta (Segunda División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
