Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.75 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.75Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultArosa to win ✗42% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗66% · @1.75
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.98
Arosa vs Gernika preview and prediction
The match
Arosa host Gernika in the Segunda División RFEF Group 1 on Sunday 13 September, with kick-off at 16:00 (WAT). Arosa are 15th with 8 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Gernika sit 11th on 12 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Arosa's last 5: DWWDD Most recently they drew with Amorebieta 2–2 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Gernika's last 5: DDDLD Most recently they drew with Bergantiños 2–2 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.6 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Arosa arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.0 goals: 2.1 for Arosa and 1.9 for Gernika. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 76% and both teams to score at 66%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Arosa 42%, draw 24%, Gernika 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (66%) at 1.75.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 66% chance at odds of 1.75, above our fair price of 1.51, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Arosa 2–1 Gernika. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Arosa42%fair 2.35 · @2.15
Draw24%fair 4.25 · @2.90
Gernika34%fair 2.94 · @3.25
4.00Expected goals
2.11Arosa xG
1.89Gernika xG
66%Both score
76%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–18%
1–17%
2–27%
1–27%
3–15%
3–25%
From our goals model: Arosa 2.1 – 1.9 Gernika expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Arosa to win✗
42%
2.35
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
66%
1.51
1.75 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
57%
1.77
–
Half-time result
Arosa ahead at half-time✗
36%
2.78
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Arosa / FT Arosa✗
27%
3.67
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.98
–
Form
Arosa – last 6
DWWDDW
6 Sep
@ Amorebieta
2–2
D
1 Aug
vs Pontevedra
3–1
W
26 Apr
vs Boiro
1–0
W
5 Apr
@ Estradense
1–1
D
2 Apr
vs Villalbés
1–1
D
29 Mar
vs Somozas
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Gernika – last 5
DDDLD
6 Sep
vs Bergantiños
2–2
D
3 May
vs Deportivo Alavés II
0–0
D
26 Apr
@ Basconia
0–0
D
8 Mar
vs UD Logroñés
1–3
L
22 Feb
vs Sestao River
0–0
D
0.6Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Arosa and Gernika.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Arosa vs Gernika?
On our numbers Arosa have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Gernika 34%.
How many goals will there be in Arosa vs Gernika?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arosa vs Gernika?
Our predicted score is Arosa 2–1 Gernika, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is Arosa vs Gernika?
Arosa vs Gernika (Segunda División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
