Basconia vs Atlético Astorga preview and prediction
The match
Basconia host Atlético Astorga in the Segunda División RFEF Group 1 on Sunday 13 September, with kick-off at 11:30 (WAT). Basconia are 9th with 14 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Atlético Astorga sit 17th on 7 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Basconia's last 5: LDLWD Most recently they lost to Ourense CF 1–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Atlético Astorga's last 5: LLWDL Most recently they lost to Portugalete 0–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.3 for Basconia and 0.7 for Atlético Astorga. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Basconia 57%, draw 21%, Atlético Astorga 22%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.70.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Basconia to win – a 57% chance at odds of 1.83, above our fair price of 1.75, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Basconia 1–0 Atlético Astorga. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Basconia57%fair 1.75 · @1.83
Draw21%fair 4.75 · @3.25
Atlético Astorga22%fair 4.59 · @3.90
2.00Expected goals
1.35Basconia xG
0.65Atlético Astorga xG
52%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–018%
0–014%
2–012%
1–112%
0–19%
2–18%
From our goals model: Basconia 1.3 – 0.7 Atlético Astorga expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Basconia to win✓
57%
1.75
1.83
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
59%
1.68
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
86%
1.17
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
49%
2.05
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Basconia / FT Basconia✓
32%
3.17
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.49
–
Form
Basconia – last 6
LDLWDW
6 Sep
@ Ourense CF
1–2
L
15 Aug
@ Racing Santander II
3–3
D
8 Aug
@ Gimnástica Torrelavega
1–2
L
3 May
vs Ejea
5–1
W
26 Apr
vs Gernika
0–0
D
12 Apr
vs Mutilvera
4–0
W
2.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Atlético Astorga – last 6
LLWDLD
5 Sep
vs Portugalete
0–1
L
29 Aug
vs Palencia CF
0–1
L
26 Aug
vs Salamanca UDS
2–1
W
21 Aug
vs Cultural Leonesa
1–1
D
15 Aug
@ La Bañeza
0–2
L
3 May
@ UD Ourense
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Basconia and Atlético Astorga.
What is the prediction for Basconia vs Atlético Astorga?
Our pick is Basconia to win with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.83.
Who will win Basconia vs Atlético Astorga?
On our numbers Basconia have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Atlético Astorga 22%.
How many goals will there be in Basconia vs Atlético Astorga?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Basconia vs Atlético Astorga?
Our predicted score is Basconia 1–0 Atlético Astorga, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Basconia vs Atlético Astorga?
Basconia vs Atlético Astorga (Segunda División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 11:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
