League Two · England · Aesseal New York Stadium

Rotherham vs Crawley Town prediction & analysis

63%

Footrivo pick

Both teams to score

Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.57

6/10Rating

1.57Odds

Value bet: Crawley Town to win @ 3.25 – our chance 38% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk.

Quick tips for this match

ResultRotherham to win40% · @2.00

Double chanceEither team to win78% · @1.28

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score63% · @1.57

GoalsOver 1.5 goals79% · @1.18

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 11.70

Win chances

Rotherham40%fair 2.50 · @2.00

Draw22%fair 4.45 · @3.50

Crawley Town38%fair 2.66 · @3.25

2.97Expected goals

1.51Rotherham xG

1.46Crawley Town xG

63%Both score

57%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–111%

2–19%

1–28%

1–08%

0–17%

2–26%

From our goals model: Rotherham 1.5 – 1.5 Crawley Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Very little separates Rotherham and Crawley Town on our numbers – 40% for the home side, 38% for the visitors and 22% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.

Rotherham have taken 5 points from their last 6 matches (1W 2D 3L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.7 per game. Crawley Town have 5 points from their last 6 (1W 2D 3L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.7 conceded.

We expect around 3.0 goals (1.5 for Rotherham, 1.5 for Crawley Town). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%).

Our pick is Both teams to score at a 63% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.57 is close to our fair price of 1.58. For a bigger price, Crawley Town to win at 3.25 is our value angle (38% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Rotherham to win	40%	2.50	2.00
Double chance	Either team to win	78%	1.29	1.28
Both teams to score	Both teams to score	63%	1.58	1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals	79%	1.26	1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals	57%	1.75	1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals	64%	1.56	1.50
Half-time result	Level at half-time	40%	2.50	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Rotherham / FT Rotherham	23%	4.36	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1	9%	11.70	–

Form

Rotherham – last 6

WLLDDL

7 Nov	@ Bromley	2–0	W
3 Nov	vs Newcastle United U21	0–1	L
31 Oct	@ Swindon Town	1–2	L
24 Oct	vs Shrewsbury	3–3	D
20 Oct	vs Newport County	2–2	D
17 Oct	@ Fleetwood Town	0–2	L

1.3Scored / game

1.7Conceded / game

50%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Crawley Town – last 6

LWDLLD

8 Nov	@ Wimborne Town	0–2	L
31 Oct	@ Oldham	1–0	W
24 Oct	vs Tranmere	1–1	D
20 Oct	vs Shrewsbury	2–3	L
17 Oct	@ Salford City	1–2	L
10 Oct	vs Chesterfield	2–2	D

1.2Scored / game

1.7Conceded / game

67%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Rotherham and Crawley Town.

League Two table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Salford City	14	10	1	3	+10	31
2	Barnet	13	7	5	1	+10	26
3	Walsall	13	5	7	1	+9	22
4	Crewe	14	5	7	2	0	22
5	Cheltenham	14	6	3	5	-2	21
6	Grimsby	14	5	5	4	+6	20
7	York	14	5	5	4	+3	20
8	Gillingham	14	5	5	4	+1	20
9	Accrington ST	14	4	7	3	+6	19
10	Chesterfield	14	5	4	5	+3	19
11	Tranmere	14	4	7	3	+2	19
12	Exeter City	14	5	4	5	+2	19
13	Swindon Town	14	5	4	5	-2	19
14	Newport County	14	4	6	4	+3	18
15	Shrewsbury	14	5	3	6	-5	18
16	Fleetwood Town	14	4	5	5	0	17
17	Bristol Rovers	14	5	1	8	-6	16
18	Oldham	14	4	3	7	-4	15
19	Port Vale	12	4	3	5	-4	15
20	Rochdale	14	4	3	7	-9	15
21	Northampton	13	3	5	5	-1	14
22	Rotherham	14	2	6	6	-7	12
23	Colchester	13	2	6	5	-7	12
24	Crawley Town	12	2	3	7	-8	9

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