League Two · England · Vale Park

Port Vale vs Accrington ST prediction & analysis

81%

Footrivo pick

Port Vale or draw

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.22

9/10Rating

1.22Odds

Value bet: Port Vale to win @ 1.85 – our chance 60% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk.

Quick tips for this match

ResultPort Vale to win60% · @1.85

Double chancePort Vale or draw81% · @1.22

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score53% · @1.91

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals76% · @1.25

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–014% · fair 7.08

Win chances

Port Vale60%fair 1.68 · @1.85

Draw22%fair 4.62 · @3.30

Accrington ST19%fair 5.33 · @3.90

2.48Expected goals

1.68Port Vale xG

0.80Accrington ST xG

53%Both score

45%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–014%

2–012%

1–111%

2–19%

0–08%

0–17%

From our goals model: Port Vale 1.7 – 0.8 Accrington ST expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Port Vale hold the edge on home soil with a 60% chance of winning, against 19% for Accrington ST.

Port Vale have taken 13 points from their last 6 matches (4W 1D 1L), scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.2 per game. Accrington ST have 9 points from their last 6 (2W 3D 1L), averaging 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded. Port Vale come into this in clearly the better form.

We expect around 2.5 goals (1.7 for Port Vale, 0.8 for Accrington ST). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 53%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14%), 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (11%).

Our pick is Port Vale or draw at a 81% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is close to our fair price of 1.23. For a bigger price, Port Vale to win at 1.85 is our value angle (60% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Port Vale to win	60%	1.68	1.85 ▲
Double chance	Port Vale or draw	81%	1.23	1.22
Both teams to score	Both teams to score	53%	1.90	1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals	71%	1.41	1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals	55%	1.82	1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals	76%	1.32	1.25
Half-time result	Level at half-time	43%	2.33	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Port Vale / FT Port Vale	36%	2.78	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–0	14%	7.08	–

Form

Port Vale – last 6

WWWLDW

7 Nov	vs Scunthorpe	4–2	W
31 Oct	vs Rochdale	4–2	W
27 Oct	vs Manchester City U21	5–0	W
24 Oct	@ York	0–2	L
20 Oct	@ Gillingham	1–1	D
17 Oct	vs Chesterfield	1–0	W

2.5Scored / game

1.2Conceded / game

50%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Accrington ST – last 6

LDWDWD

7 Nov	vs Wycombe	0–2	L
31 Oct	vs Northampton	1–1	D
24 Oct	@ Rochdale	5–0	W
20 Oct	@ York	1–1	D
17 Oct	vs Gillingham	3–1	W
10 Oct	@ Oldham	0–0	D

1.7Scored / game

0.8Conceded / game

50%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Port Vale and Accrington ST.

League Two table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Salford City	14	10	1	3	+10	31
2	Barnet	13	7	5	1	+10	26
3	Walsall	13	5	7	1	+9	22
4	Crewe	14	5	7	2	0	22
5	Cheltenham	14	6	3	5	-2	21
6	Grimsby	14	5	5	4	+6	20
7	York	14	5	5	4	+3	20
8	Gillingham	14	5	5	4	+1	20
9	Accrington ST	14	4	7	3	+6	19
10	Chesterfield	14	5	4	5	+3	19
11	Tranmere	14	4	7	3	+2	19
12	Exeter City	14	5	4	5	+2	19
13	Swindon Town	14	5	4	5	-2	19
14	Newport County	14	4	6	4	+3	18
15	Shrewsbury	14	5	3	6	-5	18
16	Fleetwood Town	14	4	5	5	0	17
17	Bristol Rovers	14	5	1	8	-6	16
18	Oldham	14	4	3	7	-4	15
19	Port Vale	12	4	3	5	-4	15
20	Rochdale	14	4	3	7	-9	15
21	Northampton	13	3	5	5	-1	14
22	Rotherham	14	2	6	6	-7	12
23	Colchester	13	2	6	5	-7	12
24	Crawley Town	12	2	3	7	-8	9

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