Very strong pick · fair odds 1.14 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Grimsby to win @ 1.76 – our chance 64% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultGrimsby to win ✓64% · @1.76
Double chanceGrimsby or draw ✓88% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓13% · fair 7.90
Grimsby vs Exeter City preview and prediction
The match
The League Two sees Grimsby take on Exeter City on Saturday 15 August, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT) at Blundell Park. Grimsby are 6th with 20 points from 14 games (in the top half), while Exeter City sit 12th on 19 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Grimsby's last 5: LWWDW Most recently they lost to Blackpool 1–3 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Exeter City's last 5: LDLWL Most recently they lost to Plymouth 0–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Grimsby arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 2.0 for Grimsby and 0.8 for Exeter City. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Grimsby 64%, draw 24%, Exeter City 12%.
Safer route: Grimsby or draw (88%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.73.
Value angle: Grimsby to win at 1.76 – 64% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Grimsby or draw – a 88% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.14, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Grimsby 1–0 Exeter City. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Grimsby64%fair 1.57 · @1.76
Draw24%fair 4.17 · @3.65
Exeter City12%fair 8.01 · @4.35
2.74Expected goals
1.96Grimsby xG
0.78Exeter City xG
57%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–06%
From our goals model: Grimsby 2.0 – 0.8 Exeter City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Grimsby to win✓
64%
1.57
1.76 ▲
Double chance
Grimsby or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.20 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.75
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.94
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.35
Half-time result
Grimsby ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Grimsby / FT Grimsby✓
42%
2.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
13%
7.90
–
Form
Grimsby – last 6
LWWDWW
8 Aug
vs Blackpool
1–3
L
4 Aug
vs Grimsby Borough
3–2
W
1 Aug
vs Wigan
2–0
W
29 Jul
@ Boston United
0–0
D
28 Jul
vs Lincoln
5–1
W
25 Jul
@ Hartlepool
3–0
W
2.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Exeter City – last 6
LDLWLW
10 Aug
@ Plymouth
0–2
L
1 Aug
vs Bristol City
1–1
D
31 Jul
@ Torquay
1–2
L
25 Jul
@ Weston-super-Mare
2–0
W
18 Jul
@ Truro City
0–1
L
6 Apr
vs Doncaster
3–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Grimsby and Exeter City.
What is the prediction for Grimsby vs Exeter City?
Our pick is Grimsby or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Grimsby vs Exeter City?
On our numbers Grimsby have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Exeter City 12%.
How many goals will there be in Grimsby vs Exeter City?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Grimsby vs Exeter City?
Our predicted score is Grimsby 1–0 Exeter City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Grimsby vs Exeter City?
Grimsby vs Exeter City (League Two) kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Blundell Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
