Value bet: Rochdale to win @ 2.28 – our chance 50% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultRochdale to win ✗50% · @2.28
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.63
Newport County vs Rochdale preview and prediction
The match
Newport County host Rochdale in the League Two on Saturday 15 August, with kick-off at 12:30 (WAT) at Rodney Parade. Newport County are 14th with 18 points from 14 games (in the bottom half), while Rochdale sit 20th on 15 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Newport County's last 5: DLWLD Most recently they drew with AFC Wimbledon 1–1 away. They average 1.2 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Rochdale's last 5: LDLDD Most recently they lost to Bradford 0–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.1 for Newport County and 1.5 for Rochdale. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 55%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Newport County 28%, draw 22%, Rochdale 50%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.73.
Value angle: Rochdale to win at 2.28 – 50% on our numbers against 44% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Newport County 1–1 Rochdale. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Newport County28%fair 3.52 · @3.05
Draw22%fair 4.56 · @3.30
Rochdale50%fair 2.01 · @2.28
2.57Expected goals
1.06Newport County xG
1.51Rochdale xG
55%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–112%
1–29%
0–29%
1–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Newport County 1.1 – 1.5 Rochdale expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Rochdale to win✗
50%
2.01
2.28 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.82
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.90
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Rochdale / FT Rochdale✗
28%
3.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.63
–
Form
Newport County – last 6
DLWLDL
8 Aug
@ AFC Wimbledon
1–1
D
4 Aug
vs AS Roma
1–4
L
1 Aug
@ Yeovil Town
2–1
W
28 Jul
vs Reading
0–4
L
25 Jul
@ Bath City
2–2
D
11 Jul
@ Gloucester City
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Rochdale – last 6
LDLDDL
8 Aug
@ Bradford
0–2
L
1 Aug
@ Tranmere
2–2
D
28 Jul
vs FC Halifax Town
2–3
L
25 Jul
vs Farnham Town
2–2
D
19 Jul
vs Al-Rayyan SC
3–3
D
14 Jul
@ United of Manchester
0–2
L
1.5Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Newport County and Rochdale.
What is the prediction for Newport County vs Rochdale?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Newport County vs Rochdale?
On our numbers Newport County have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Rochdale 50%.
How many goals will there be in Newport County vs Rochdale?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Newport County vs Rochdale?
Our predicted score is Newport County 1–1 Rochdale, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Newport County vs Rochdale?
Newport County vs Rochdale (League Two) kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time) at Rodney Parade.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
