Value bet: Wrexham to win @ 2.45 – our chance 45% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultWrexham to win ✗45% · @2.45
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 9.63
Derby vs Wrexham preview and prediction
The match
Derby host Wrexham in the Championship on Saturday 10 October, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Pride Park Stadium. Derby are 23rd with 10 points from 15 games (in the bottom three), while Wrexham sit 15th on 18 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Derby's last 5: DLLLW Most recently they drew with Burnley 1–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Wrexham's last 5: WLDDW Most recently they beat Southampton 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Wrexham arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.2 for Derby and 1.4 for Wrexham. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Derby 33%, draw 22%, Wrexham 45%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Wrexham to win at 2.45 – 45% on our numbers against 41% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 56% chance at odds of 1.80. Predicted score: Derby 1–1 Wrexham. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Derby33%fair 3.04 · @2.80
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.10
Wrexham45%fair 2.24 · @2.45
2.63Expected goals
1.19Derby xG
1.44Wrexham xG
56%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–09%
0–27%
2–17%
From our goals model: Derby 1.2 – 1.4 Wrexham expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Wrexham to win✗
45%
2.24
2.45 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.29
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.80
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.96
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Wrexham / FT Wrexham✗
25%
3.97
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
9.63
–
Form
Derby – last 6
DLLLWL
19 Sep
@ Burnley
1–1
D
12 Sep
vs Birmingham
1–2
L
9 Sep
vs West Brom
0–1
L
5 Sep
@ West Ham
0–3
L
1 Sep
@ Portsmouth
2–0
W
29 Aug
vs Swansea
0–3
L
0.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Wrexham – last 6
WLDDWL
19 Sep
vs Southampton
2–1
W
11 Sep
@ West Ham
0–6
L
8 Sep
vs Burnley
1–1
D
5 Sep
@ Swansea
0–0
D
2 Sep
@ Millwall
3–0
W
28 Aug
vs Birmingham
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Derby and Wrexham.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Derby vs Wrexham?
On our numbers Derby have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Wrexham 45%.
How many goals will there be in Derby vs Wrexham?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Derby vs Wrexham?
Our predicted score is Derby 1–1 Wrexham, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Derby vs Wrexham?
Derby vs Wrexham (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Pride Park Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
