Championship · England · Turf MoorBurnley vs Derby prediction & analysis
Burnley or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Burnley 2.0 – 1.1 Derby expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Burnley hold the edge on home soil with a 58% chance of winning, against 19% for Derby.
Burnley have taken 3 points from their last 6 matches (0W 3D 3L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.8 per game. Derby have 4 points from their last 6 (1W 1D 4L), averaging 0.8 scored and 1.8 conceded.
We expect around 3.1 goals (2.0 for Burnley, 1.1 for Derby). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (9%).
Our pick is Burnley or draw at a 81% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is close to our fair price of 1.24.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Burnley to win ✗ | 58% | 1.71 | 1.75 |
| Double chance | Burnley or draw ✓ | 81% | 1.24 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 60% | 1.68 | 1.70 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 81% | 1.23 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 59% | 1.69 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 63% | 1.58 | – |
| Half-time result | Burnley ahead at half-time ✓ | 43% | 2.31 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Burnley / FT Burnley ✗ | 37% | 2.68 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 10% | 10.07 | – |
Form
Burnley – last 6
| 12 Sep | @ Swansea | 1–3 | L |
| 8 Sep | @ Wrexham | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sep | vs Bristol City | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Sep | vs Middlesbrough | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | @ Norwich | 1–4 | L |
| 26 Aug | @ Bradford | 0–0 | D |
Derby – last 6
| 12 Sep | vs Birmingham | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Sep | vs West Brom | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sep | @ West Ham | 0–3 | L |
| 1 Sep | @ Portsmouth | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | vs Swansea | 0–3 | L |
| 22 Aug | vs Cardiff | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Burnley and Derby.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Birmingham | 15 | +14 | 29 |
| 2 |  Middlesbrough | 15 | +11 | 29 |
| 3 |  Stoke City | 15 | +6 | 29 |
| 4 |  Wolves | 15 | +8 | 28 |
| 5 |  West Brom | 15 | +8 | 28 |
| 6 |  Swansea | 15 | +4 | 26 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 15 | +14 | 24 |
| 8 |  QPR | 15 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 |  West Ham | 15 | +14 | 23 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 15 | +8 | 21 |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 15 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Cardiff | 15 | 0 | 18 |
| 15 |  Wrexham | 15 | -2 | 18 |
| 16 |  Millwall | 15 | -4 | 18 |
| 17 |  Bristol City | 15 | -8 | 18 |
| 18 |  Bolton | 15 | -9 | 17 |
| 19 |  Charlton | 15 | -10 | 17 |
| 20 |  Watford | 15 | -10 | 15 |
| 21 |  Lincoln | 15 | -11 | 15 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 15 | -9 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 15 | -16 | 10 |
| 24 |  Preston | 15 | -17 | 8 |
More Championship predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Burnley vs Derby?
Our pick is Burnley or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Burnley vs Derby?
On our numbers Burnley have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Derby 19%.
How many goals will there be in Burnley vs Derby?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
When is Burnley vs Derby?
Burnley vs Derby (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Turf Moor.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.