Value bet: Derby to win @ 3.25 – our chance 35% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPortsmouth to win ✗43% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗63% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.26
Portsmouth vs Derby preview and prediction
The match
The Championship sees Portsmouth take on Derby on Tuesday 1 September, kicking off at 19:45 (WAT) at Fratton Park. Portsmouth are 11th with 22 points from 15 games (in the top half), while Derby sit 23rd on 10 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Portsmouth's last 5: LWLLD Most recently they lost to Bristol City 1–2 away. They average 1.2 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Derby's last 5: LDLLD Most recently they lost to Swansea 0–3 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Portsmouth arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 0.8 points a game against 0.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 16 March 2026, finished Portsmouth 0–1 Derby.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.6 for Portsmouth and 1.4 for Derby. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score in 63% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Portsmouth 43%, draw 22%, Derby 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Derby to win at 3.25 – 35% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Portsmouth 1–1 Derby. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Portsmouth43%fair 2.32 · @2.15
Draw22%fair 4.60 · @3.35
Derby35%fair 2.85 · @3.25
3.03Expected goals
1.61Portsmouth xG
1.42Derby xG
63%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–28%
1–08%
0–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: Portsmouth 1.6 – 1.4 Derby expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Portsmouth vs Derby?
On our numbers Portsmouth have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Derby 35%.
How many goals will there be in Portsmouth vs Derby?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Portsmouth vs Derby?
Our predicted score is Portsmouth 1–1 Derby, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Portsmouth vs Derby?
Portsmouth vs Derby (Championship) kicks off on Tuesday 1 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Fratton Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
