Value bet: Southampton to win @ 2.74 – our chance 40% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSouthampton to win ✗40% · @2.74
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.61
Birmingham vs Southampton preview and prediction
The match
Southampton travel to St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park in the Championship on Tuesday 1 September (20:00 WAT) to face Birmingham. Birmingham are 1st with 29 points from 15 games (top of the table), while Southampton sit 7th on 24 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Birmingham's last 5: WLDDW Most recently they beat Wrexham 2–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Southampton's last 5: WLWLW Most recently they beat Millwall 5–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Southampton arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.5 for Birmingham and 1.6 for Southampton. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 55% and both teams to score at 59%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Southampton to win at 2.74 – 40% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Birmingham 1–1 Southampton. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Birmingham36%fair 2.75 · @2.46
Draw24%fair 4.21 · @3.35
Southampton40%fair 2.51 · @2.74
3.02Expected goals
1.47Birmingham xG
1.55Southampton xG
59%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–18%
1–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: Birmingham 1.5 – 1.6 Southampton expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Southampton to win✗
40%
2.51
2.74 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.31
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.68
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.83
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.35
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
39%
2.53
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Southampton / FT Southampton✗
23%
4.26
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.61
–
Form
Birmingham – last 6
WLDDWD
28 Aug
@ Wrexham
2–1
W
25 Aug
vs Brentford
1–6
L
22 Aug
vs Bristol City
2–2
D
15 Aug
@ Sheffield Utd
0–0
D
8 Aug
@ Swansea
1–0
W
31 Jul
vs Barcelona
2–2
D
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Southampton – last 6
WLWLWW
29 Aug
vs Millwall
5–1
W
25 Aug
vs West Ham
1–4
L
22 Aug
vs Stoke City
3–1
W
16 Aug
@ Watford
1–2
L
8 Aug
@ Colchester
2–0
W
1 Aug
@ Preußen Münster
2–1
W
2.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Birmingham and Southampton.
What is the prediction for Birmingham vs Southampton?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Birmingham vs Southampton?
On our numbers Birmingham have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Southampton 40%.
How many goals will there be in Birmingham vs Southampton?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Birmingham vs Southampton?
Our predicted score is Birmingham 1–1 Southampton, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Birmingham vs Southampton?
Birmingham vs Southampton (Championship) kicks off on Tuesday 1 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
