Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultSouthampton to win ✓61% · @1.63
Double chanceSouthampton or draw ✓85% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.07
Southampton vs Stoke City preview and prediction
The match
Stoke City travel to St. Mary's Stadium in the Championship on Saturday 22 August (15:00 WAT) to face Southampton. Southampton are 7th with 24 points from 15 games (in the top half), while Stoke City sit 3rd on 29 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Southampton's last 5: LWWWW Most recently they lost to Watford 1–2 away. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Stoke City's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to Swansea 1–2 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.0 for Southampton and 0.9 for Stoke City. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 57% and both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Southampton 61%, draw 24%, Stoke City 15%.
Safer route: Southampton or draw (85%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.70.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Southampton 2–0 Stoke City. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Southampton61%fair 1.64 · @1.63
Draw24%fair 4.08 · @3.95
Stoke City15%fair 6.81 · @4.90
2.97Expected goals
2.03Southampton xG
0.94Stoke City xG
57%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–010%
2–110%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Southampton 2.0 – 0.9 Stoke City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Southampton to win✓
61%
1.64
1.63
Double chance
Southampton or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.77
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
65%
1.53
1.45
Half-time result
Southampton ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Southampton / FT Southampton✗
40%
2.49
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.07
–
Form
Southampton – last 6
LWWWWD
16 Aug
@ Watford
1–2
L
8 Aug
@ Colchester
2–0
W
1 Aug
@ Preußen Münster
2–1
W
24 Jul
@ Eintracht Braunschweig
1–0
W
18 Jul
@ Eastleigh
3–1
W
12 May
vs Middlesbrough
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Stoke City – last 6
LWDWWD
15 Aug
vs Swansea
1–2
L
8 Aug
vs Oldham
2–0
W
1 Aug
vs Valencia
1–1
D
28 Jul
vs Everton
1–0
W
21 Jul
@ Chester
1–0
W
18 Jul
@ Crewe
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Southampton and Stoke City.
What is the prediction for Southampton vs Stoke City?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Southampton vs Stoke City?
On our numbers Southampton have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Stoke City 15%.
How many goals will there be in Southampton vs Stoke City?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Southampton vs Stoke City?
Our predicted score is Southampton 2–0 Stoke City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Southampton vs Stoke City?
Southampton vs Stoke City (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at St. Mary's Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
