Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
U2.5
Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.00 – our chance 59% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBirmingham to win ✗60% · @1.84
Double chanceBirmingham or draw ✓85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · @1.38
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗7% · fair 13.66
Birmingham vs Bristol City preview and prediction
The match
Bristol City travel to St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park in the Championship on Saturday 22 August (12:30 WAT) to face Birmingham. Birmingham are 1st with 29 points from 15 games (top of the table), while Bristol City sit 17th on 18 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Birmingham's last 5: DWDWW Most recently they drew with Sheffield Utd 0–0 away. They average 1.5 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Bristol City's last 5: LLDDW Most recently they lost to Millwall 0–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Birmingham arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 1.4 for Birmingham and 0.5 for Bristol City. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 59% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Birmingham 60%, draw 25%, Bristol City 15%.
Safer route: Birmingham or draw (85%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 2.00 – 59% on our numbers against 50% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Birmingham or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Birmingham 1–0 Bristol City. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Birmingham60%fair 1.66 · @1.84
Draw25%fair 4.02 · @3.55
Bristol City15%fair 6.73 · @4.10
1.89Expected goals
1.39Birmingham xG
0.51Bristol City xG
52%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–021%
0–015%
2–014%
1–111%
0–18%
2–17%
From our goals model: Birmingham 1.4 – 0.5 Bristol City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Birmingham to win✗
60%
1.66
1.84 ▲
Double chance
Birmingham or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.92
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.70
2.00 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
1.38 ▲
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
2.02
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Birmingham / FT Birmingham✗
35%
2.85
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
7%
13.66
–
Form
Birmingham – last 6
DWDWWW
15 Aug
@ Sheffield Utd
0–0
D
8 Aug
@ Swansea
1–0
W
31 Jul
vs Barcelona
2–2
D
25 Jul
@ Crewe
2–1
W
22 Jul
@ Burton Albion
1–0
W
15 Jul
@ Solihull Moors
3–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Bristol City – last 6
LLDDWL
15 Aug
vs Millwall
0–2
L
6 Aug
vs Walsall
0–1
L
1 Aug
@ Exeter City
1–1
D
1 Aug
@ Plymouth
0–0
D
29 Jul
vs Newcastle
4–1
W
29 Jul
@ Forest Green
2–3
L
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Birmingham and Bristol City.
What is the prediction for Birmingham vs Bristol City?
Our pick is Birmingham or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Birmingham vs Bristol City?
On our numbers Birmingham have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Bristol City 15%.
How many goals will there be in Birmingham vs Bristol City?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Birmingham vs Bristol City?
Our predicted score is Birmingham 1–0 Bristol City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Birmingham vs Bristol City?
Birmingham vs Bristol City (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time) at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
