Very strong pick · fair odds 1.14 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Derby to win @ 1.85 – our chance 66% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDerby to win ✗66% · @1.85
Double chanceDerby or draw ✓87% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.77
Derby vs Cardiff preview and prediction
The match
Derby host Cardiff in the Championship on Saturday 22 August, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Pride Park. Derby are 23rd with 10 points from 15 games (in the bottom three), while Cardiff sit 14th on 18 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Derby's last 5: LLDLW Most recently they lost to Charlton 1–2 away. They average 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Cardiff's last 5: DWWWW Most recently they drew with Wrexham 1–1 at home. They are scoring freely – 3.2 goals a game.
Cardiff arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.9 for Derby and 0.7 for Cardiff. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 49%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Derby 66%, draw 22%, Cardiff 13%.
Safer route: Derby or draw (87%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.90.
Value angle: Derby to win at 1.85 – 66% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Derby or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.14, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Derby 1–0 Cardiff. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Derby66%fair 1.52 · @1.85
Draw22%fair 4.59 · @3.55
Cardiff13%fair 7.95 · @4.00
2.53Expected goals
1.86Derby xG
0.67Cardiff xG
49%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
3–09%
0–08%
From our goals model: Derby 1.9 – 0.7 Cardiff expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Derby to win✗
66%
1.52
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Derby or draw✓
87%
1.14
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.96
1.90
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.88
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
74%
1.35
1.28
Half-time result
Derby ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Derby / FT Derby✗
42%
2.39
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.77
–
Form
Derby – last 6
LLDLWL
15 Aug
@ Charlton
1–2
L
8 Aug
vs Lincoln
1–2
L
4 Aug
@ Rotherham
1–1
D
1 Aug
@ Burton Albion
0–1
L
31 Jul
@ Mansfield Town
3–1
W
28 Jul
vs Valencia
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Cardiff – last 6
DWWWWL
17 Aug
vs Wrexham
1–1
D
8 Aug
vs Swindon Town
3–2
W
1 Aug
vs AS Roma
4–1
W
25 Jul
@ Forest Green
5–1
W
14 Jul
@ Cork City
6–1
W
11 Jul
vs FC Midtjylland
0–6
L
3.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Derby and Cardiff.
Our pick is Derby or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Derby vs Cardiff?
On our numbers Derby have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Cardiff 13%.
How many goals will there be in Derby vs Cardiff?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Derby vs Cardiff?
Our predicted score is Derby 1–0 Cardiff, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Derby vs Cardiff?
Derby vs Cardiff (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Pride Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
