J1 League · Japan · Mercari Stadium
Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.66 · bookmaker 1.73 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Kashima 2.3 – 1.2 V-varen Nagasaki expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Kashima are clear favourites at home with a 62% chance of winning, against 17% for V-varen Nagasaki.
Kashima have taken 13 points from their last 6 matches (4W 1D 1L), scoring 2.8 and conceding 1.2 per game. V-varen Nagasaki have 9 points from their last 6 (2W 3D 1L), averaging 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded. Kashima come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.4 goals (2.3 for Kashima, 1.2 for V-varen Nagasaki). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–1 (10%), 1–1 (8%), 2–0 (8%).
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 60% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.73 is better than our fair price of 1.66, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Kashima to win ✓ | 62% | 1.63 | 1.50 |
| Double chance | Kashima or draw ✓ | 83% | 1.21 | 1.12 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 60% | 1.66 | 1.73 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 86% | 1.17 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 67% | 1.50 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 55% | 1.82 | – |
| Half-time result | Kashima ahead at half-time ✓ | 47% | 2.14 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Kashima / FT Kashima ✓ | 41% | 2.46 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 10% | 10.34 | – |
Form
Kashima – last 6
| 13 Oct | @ Công An Nhân Dân | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Oct | vs Gamba Osaka | 2–0 | W |
| 23 Sep | vs Ventforet Kofu | 3–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | @ Kawasaki Frontale | 3–3 | D |
| 15 Sep | vs Newcastle Jets | 7–1 | W |
| 11 Sep | @ Vissel Kobe | 1–2 | L |
V-varen Nagasaki – last 6
| 11 Oct | @ JEF United Chiba | 1–1 | D |
| 7 Oct | @ Shimizu S-pulse | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Sep | @ Gainare Tottori | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Cerezo Osaka | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Nagoya Grampus | 2–0 | W |
| 9 Sep | @ Kochi United | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Kashima and V-varen Nagasaki.
J1 League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kashima | 18 | +20 | 45 |
| 2 |  FC Tokyo | 18 | +14 | 37 |
| 3 |  Machida Zelvia | 18 | +6 | 37 |
| 4 |  Kawasaki Frontale | 18 | -2 | 28 |
| 5 |  Tokyo Verdy | 18 | -4 | 28 |
| 6 |  Urawa | 18 | +3 | 25 |
| 7 |  Yokohama F. Marinos | 18 | -3 | 20 |
| 8 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 18 | -2 | 20 |
| 9 |  Mito Hollyhock | 18 | -16 | 18 |
| 10 |  JEF United Chiba | 18 | -16 | 12 |
More J1 League predictions
League hub
Shimizu S-pulse2
Gamba Osaka2
Sanfrecce Hiroshima3
Kyoto Sanga0
Cerezo Osaka2
Nagoya Grampus3Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki?
On our numbers Kashima have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 21% and V-varen Nagasaki 17%.
How many goals will there be in Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
When is Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki?
Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki (J1 League) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 07:00 (West Africa Time) at Mercari Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.