Value bet: Shimizu S-pulse to win @ 3.65 – our chance 30% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFC Tokyo to win ✗49% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.77
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.08
Shimizu S-pulse vs FC Tokyo preview and prediction
The match
Shimizu S-pulse host FC Tokyo in the J1 League on Wednesday 2 September, with kick-off at 11:00 (WAT) at IAI Stadium Nihondaira. Shimizu S-pulse are 7th with 24 points from 18 games (in the bottom half), while FC Tokyo sit 2nd on 37 points (in the top four). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Shimizu S-pulse's last 5: LDLLW Most recently they lost to Kashiwa Reysol 0–1 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
FC Tokyo's last 5: WWWDL Most recently they beat V-varen Nagasaki 3–0 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
FC Tokyo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.0 for Shimizu S-pulse and 1.4 for FC Tokyo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Shimizu S-pulse 30%, draw 22%, FC Tokyo 49%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.77.
Value angle: Shimizu S-pulse to win at 3.65 – 30% on our numbers against 27% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Shimizu S-pulse 1–1 FC Tokyo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Shimizu S-pulse30%fair 3.38 · @3.65
Draw22%fair 4.60 · @3.35
FC Tokyo49%fair 2.05 · @2.00
2.47Expected goals
1.04Shimizu S-pulse xG
1.44FC Tokyo xG
58%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–29%
1–09%
0–29%
0–08%
From our goals model: Shimizu S-pulse 1.0 – 1.4 FC Tokyo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FC Tokyo to win✗
49%
2.05
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.71
1.77
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FC Tokyo / FT FC Tokyo✗
27%
3.65
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.08
–
Form
Shimizu S-pulse – last 6
LDLLWW
29 Aug
vs Kashiwa Reysol
0–1
L
26 Aug
vs Osaka
1–1
D
22 Aug
@ Cerezo Osaka
0–1
L
15 Aug
vs Yokohama F. Marinos
0–1
L
8 Aug
@ Nagoya Grampus
1–0
W
18 Jul
@ Karlsruher SC
3–1
W
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
FC Tokyo – last 6
WWWDLL
29 Aug
@ V-varen Nagasaki
3–0
W
26 Aug
vs Parceiro Nagano
6–0
W
21 Aug
vs JEF United Chiba
2–0
W
15 Aug
@ Vissel Kobe
2–2
D
8 Aug
vs Machida Zelvia
1–5
L
1 Aug
vs Borussia Dortmund
0–1
L
2.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Shimizu S-pulse and FC Tokyo.
What is the prediction for Shimizu S-pulse vs FC Tokyo?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Shimizu S-pulse vs FC Tokyo?
On our numbers Shimizu S-pulse have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 22% and FC Tokyo 49%.
How many goals will there be in Shimizu S-pulse vs FC Tokyo?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Shimizu S-pulse vs FC Tokyo?
Our predicted score is Shimizu S-pulse 1–1 FC Tokyo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Shimizu S-pulse vs FC Tokyo?
Shimizu S-pulse vs FC Tokyo (J1 League) kicks off on Wednesday 2 September 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at IAI Stadium Nihondaira.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Avispa Fukuoka2
Cerezo Osaka2
Fagiano Okayama2
Sanfrecce Hiroshima3
Nagoya Grampus0
Vissel Kobe2
V-varen Nagasaki2
Gamba Osaka2