Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.30Odds
2
Value bet: Montpellier to win @ 2.55 – our chance 47% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMontpellier to win ✓47% · @2.55
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓17% · fair 5.77
Nancy vs Montpellier preview and prediction
The match
Montpellier travel to Stade Marcel Picot in the Ligue 2 on Friday 14 August (19:45 WAT) to face Nancy. Nancy are 2nd with 25 points from 12 games (in the top four), while Montpellier sit 3rd on 24 points (in the top four). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Nancy's last 5: DDDDW Most recently they drew with Boulogne 0–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Montpellier's last 5: DWWLW Most recently they drew with Dijon 1–1 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.8 goals a game.
Montpellier arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 6 March 2026, finished Nancy 0–3 Montpellier.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 0.8 for Nancy and 1.1 for Montpellier. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 62% likely.
Value angle: Montpellier to win at 2.55 – 47% on our numbers against 39% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 81% chance at odds of 1.30, above our fair price of 1.24, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Nancy 0–1 Montpellier. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nancy31%fair 3.24 · @2.62
Draw22%fair 4.60 · @3.35
Montpellier47%fair 2.11 · @2.55
1.81Expected goals
0.75Nancy xG
1.05Montpellier xG
51%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–117%
0–016%
1–113%
1–012%
0–29%
1–27%
From our goals model: Nancy 0.8 – 1.1 Montpellier expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Nancy vs Montpellier?
On our numbers Nancy have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Montpellier 47%.
How many goals will there be in Nancy vs Montpellier?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nancy vs Montpellier?
Our predicted score is Nancy 0–1 Montpellier, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Nancy vs Montpellier?
Nancy vs Montpellier (Ligue 2) kicks off on Friday 14 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade Marcel Picot.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
