Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.30Odds
1
Value bet: Guingamp to win @ 1.73 – our chance 63% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultGuingamp to win ✓63% · @1.73
Double chanceGuingamp or draw ✓88% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓20% · fair 5.07
Guingamp vs Boulogne preview and prediction
The match
The Ligue 2 sees Guingamp take on Boulogne on Friday 14 August, kicking off at 19:45 (WAT) at Stade du Roudourou. Guingamp are 11th with 14 points from 12 games (in the bottom half), while Boulogne sit 12th on 13 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Guingamp's last 5: LDLLL Most recently they lost to Metz 1–2 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Boulogne's last 5: DDLWL Most recently they drew with Nancy 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Boulogne arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.6 for Guingamp and 0.5 for Boulogne. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 58% likely.
Value angle: Guingamp to win at 1.73 – 63% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Guingamp 1–0 Boulogne. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Guingamp63%fair 1.58 · @1.73
Draw25%fair 4.06 · @3.65
Boulogne12%fair 8.29 · @4.60
2.07Expected goals
1.56Guingamp xG
0.51Boulogne xG
50%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–020%
2–015%
0–013%
1–110%
3–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Guingamp 1.6 – 0.5 Boulogne expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Guingamp to win✓
63%
1.58
1.73 ▲
Double chance
Guingamp or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
50%
1.98
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.71
1.85 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Guingamp / FT Guingamp✗
39%
2.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
20%
5.07
–
Form
Guingamp – last 6
LDLLLD
8 Aug
@ Metz
1–2
L
1 Aug
@ Stade Brestois 29
3–3
D
25 Jul
vs Lorient
0–2
L
22 Jul
vs Concarneau
0–1
L
17 Jul
@ Rennes
1–3
L
10 Jul
vs Laval
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Boulogne – last 6
DDLWLW
8 Aug
vs Nancy
0–0
D
31 Jul
@ Valenciennes
1–1
D
25 Jul
vs Rouen
0–1
L
24 Jul
@ Amiens
1–0
W
18 Jul
@ Lens
1–4
L
15 Jul
@ Fleury 91
2–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Guingamp and Boulogne.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Guingamp vs Boulogne?
On our numbers Guingamp have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Boulogne 12%.
How many goals will there be in Guingamp vs Boulogne?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Guingamp vs Boulogne?
Our predicted score is Guingamp 1–0 Boulogne, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Guingamp vs Boulogne?
Guingamp vs Boulogne (Ligue 2) kicks off on Friday 14 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade du Roudourou.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
