Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: PAU to win @ 3.10 – our chance 41% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +29%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPAU to win ✓41% · @3.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓15% · fair 6.88
Dijon vs PAU preview and prediction
The match
Dijon host PAU in the Ligue 2 on Friday 14 August, with kick-off at 19:45 (WAT) at Stade Gaston Gerard. Dijon are 6th with 18 points from 12 games (in the top half), while PAU sit 5th on 20 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Dijon's last 5: DDWWW Most recently they drew with Montpellier 1–1 away. They are scoring freely – 2.8 goals a game.
PAU's last 5: LLLLW Most recently they lost to Annecy 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Dijon arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 0.9 for Dijon and 1.1 for PAU. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 62% likely. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Dijon 35%, draw 24%, PAU 41%.
Both teams to score: no (54%) at 1.85.
Value angle: PAU to win at 3.10 – 41% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 81% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Dijon 0–1 PAU. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Dijon35%fair 2.89 · @2.25
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @3.30
PAU41%fair 2.41 · @3.10
1.98Expected goals
0.93Dijon xG
1.06PAU xG
46%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
0–014%
1–113%
1–013%
0–28%
1–27%
From our goals model: Dijon 0.9 – 1.1 PAU expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
PAU to win✓
41%
2.41
3.10 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
2.00
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
22%
4.55
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
15%
6.88
–
Form
Dijon – last 6
DDWWWW
8 Aug
@ Montpellier
1–1
D
1 Aug
@ Nancy
2–2
D
25 Jul
@ Sochaux
3–0
W
22 Jul
@ Bourg-en-bresse 01
2–1
W
18 Jul
vs Progres Niederkorn
4–1
W
15 Jul
vs UNFP
5–2
W
2.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
PAU – last 6
LLLLWL
8 Aug
vs Annecy
0–1
L
1 Aug
vs Real Unión
1–2
L
25 Jul
@ Real Sociedad II
0–4
L
21 Jul
@ Espanyol
0–4
L
11 Jul
@ Real Sociedad
1–0
W
24 Apr
@ Annecy
1–5
L
0.5Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Dijon and PAU.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Dijon vs PAU?
On our numbers Dijon have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and PAU 41%.
How many goals will there be in Dijon vs PAU?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Dijon vs PAU?
Our predicted score is Dijon 0–1 PAU, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Dijon vs PAU?
Dijon vs PAU (Ligue 2) kicks off on Friday 14 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade Gaston Gerard.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
