Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Jong AZ to win @ 1.85 – our chance 58% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultJong AZ to win ✓58% · @1.85
Double chanceJong AZ or draw ✓80% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓67% · @1.36
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.25
Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport preview and prediction
The match
Jong AZ host Helmond Sport in the Eerste Divisie on Friday 23 October, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT) at AFAS Trainingscomplex. Jong AZ are 19th with 0 points from 0 games (in the bottom three), while Helmond Sport sit 7th on 0 points (in the top half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Jong AZ's last 5: DLWDL Most recently they drew with VVV Venlo 4–4 away. They are scoring freely – 2.8 goals a game.
Helmond Sport's last 5: LLDLL Most recently they lost to NAC Breda 0–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Jong AZ arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 3 April 2026, finished Jong AZ 2–0 Helmond Sport.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.9 goals: 2.4 for Jong AZ and 1.4 for Helmond Sport. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 74% likely and both teams score in 67% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Jong AZ 58%, draw 22%, Helmond Sport 20%.
Safer route: Jong AZ or draw (80%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (67%) at 1.36.
Value angle: Jong AZ to win at 1.85 – 58% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Jong AZ or draw – a 80% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Jong AZ 2–1 Helmond Sport. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Jong AZ58%fair 1.73 · @1.85
Draw22%fair 4.50 · @3.75
Helmond Sport20%fair 4.98 · @3.40
3.86Expected goals
2.43Jong AZ xG
1.43Helmond Sport xG
67%Both score
74%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
1–17%
3–17%
2–26%
2–06%
1–25%
From our goals model: Jong AZ 2.4 – 1.4 Helmond Sport expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport?
Our pick is Jong AZ or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport?
On our numbers Jong AZ have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Helmond Sport 20%.
How many goals will there be in Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport?
We expect about 3.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 74% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport?
Our predicted score is Jong AZ 2–1 Helmond Sport, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.9 goals in total.
When is Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport?
Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport (Eerste Divisie) kicks off on Friday 23 October 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
