Luxembourg
Estonia
Luxembourg vs Estonia prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.20
Value bet: Estonia to win @ 3.40 – our chance 39% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +33%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Luxembourg 0.9 – 1.0 Estonia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Luxembourg and Estonia on our numbers – 37% for the home side, 39% for the visitors and 24% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Luxembourg have taken 6 points from their last 6 matches (2W 0D 4L), scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.3 per game. Estonia have 9 points from their last 6 (2W 3D 1L), averaging 0.5 scored and 0.5 conceded.
We expect around 1.9 goals (0.9 for Luxembourg, 1.0 for Estonia). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely. Most likely scores: 0–0 (15%), 0–1 (15%), 1–0 (14%).
In their last 1 meeting, Luxembourg have won 0, Estonia have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 83% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.21. For a bigger price, Estonia to win at 3.40 is our value angle (39% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Estonia to win | 39% | 2.55 | 3.40 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win | 76% | 1.32 | 1.36 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score | 52% | 1.94 | 2.10 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals | 60% | 1.65 | 1.44 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals | 65% | 1.53 | 1.57 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals | 83% | 1.21 | 1.20 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time | 51% | 1.95 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Draw / FT Draw | 23% | 4.32 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 | 15% | 6.84 | – |
Form
Luxembourg – last 6
| 6 Oct | vs Bulgaria | 0–2 | L |
| 3 Oct | @ Estonia | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Sep | vs Iceland | 0–3 | L |
| 26 Sep | @ Bulgaria | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Jun | @ Albania | 1–0 | W |
| 3 Jun | vs Italy | 0–1 | L |
Estonia – last 6
| 6 Oct | vs Iceland | 0–0 | D |
| 3 Oct | vs Luxembourg | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Sep | @ Bulgaria | 0–0 | D |
| 26 Sep | @ Iceland | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Jun | vs Faroe Islands | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Mar | @ Rwanda | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
| 3 Oct 2026 | Estonia v Luxembourg | 1–0 |
More UEFA Nations League predictions
Moldova
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Serbia
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2Germany to win
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Netherlands
Greece
1Netherlands to win
68%@1.42
Slovakia
Faroe Islands
O1.5Over 1.5 goals
76%@1.22
Bulgaria
Iceland
X2Iceland or draw
87%@1.22
Liechtenstein
Azerbaijan
U3.5Under 3.5 goals
83%@1.22
Andorra
Gibraltar
U2.5Under 2.5 goals
74%@1.34
Slovenia
Switzerland
U3.5Under 3.5 goals
75%@1.25
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Luxembourg vs Estonia?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Luxembourg vs Estonia?
On our numbers Luxembourg have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Estonia 39%.
How many goals will there be in Luxembourg vs Estonia?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
When is Luxembourg vs Estonia?
Luxembourg vs Estonia (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Friday 13 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.