UEFA Nations League · Europe

Bulgaria

WLDLD
Fri 13 Nov 2026

Iceland

DWWDL

Bulgaria vs Iceland prediction & analysis

87%
Footrivo pick

Iceland or draw

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.22

10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2

Value bet: Iceland to win @ 1.85 – our chance 63% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk.

Quick tips for this match

ResultIceland to win63% · @1.85
Double chanceIceland or draw87% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score50% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals78% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–117% · fair 5.73

Win chances

Bulgaria13%fair 7.59 · @4.00
Draw24%fair 4.21 · @3.50
Iceland63%fair 1.58 · @1.85
2.25Expected goals
0.60Bulgaria xG
1.65Iceland xG
50%Both score
42%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

0–117%
0–214%
0–011%
1–110%
1–29%
0–38%

From our goals model: Bulgaria 0.6 – 1.6 Iceland expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Iceland travel as clear favourites – 63% to win, against 13% for Bulgaria.

Bulgaria have taken 5 points from their last 6 matches (1W 2D 3L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.3 per game. Iceland have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded.

We expect around 2.2 goals (0.6 for Bulgaria, 1.6 for Iceland). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 50%. Most likely scores: 0–1 (17%), 0–2 (14%), 0–0 (11%).

In their last 1 meeting, Bulgaria have won 0, Iceland have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.

Our pick is Iceland or draw at a 87% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is better than our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Iceland to win at 1.85 is our value angle (63% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultIceland to win63%1.581.85 ▲
Double chanceIceland or draw87%1.151.22 ▲
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score50%1.981.80
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals68%1.461.33
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals58%1.731.73
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals78%1.281.25
Half-time resultLevel at half-time45%2.24–
Half-time / full-timeHT Iceland / FT Iceland39%2.56–
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–117%5.73–

Form

Bulgaria – last 6

WLDLDL
6 Oct@ Luxembourg2–0W
3 Oct@ Iceland0–3L
29 Sepvs Estonia0–0D
26 Sepvs Luxembourg1–2L
5 Jun@ Moldova2–2D
1 Junvs Montenegro0–1L
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Iceland – last 6

DWWDLL
6 Oct@ Estonia0–0D
3 Octvs Bulgaria3–0W
29 Sep@ Luxembourg3–0W
26 Sepvs Estonia1–1D
10 Jun@ Argentina0–3L
31 May@ Japan0–1L
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

3 Oct 2026Iceland v Bulgaria3–0

More UEFA Nations League predictions

Moldova Kazakhstan 362440 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 69%@1.44 Serbia Germany 131573 2Germany to win 73%@1.28 Netherlands Greece 681814 1Netherlands to win 68%@1.42 Slovakia Faroe Islands 671816 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 76%@1.22 Liechtenstein Azerbaijan 72072 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 83%@1.22 Luxembourg Estonia 372439 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 83%@1.20 Andorra Gibraltar 612415 U2.5Under 2.5 goals 74%@1.34 Slovenia Switzerland 162361 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 75%@1.25

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Bulgaria vs Iceland?

Our pick is Iceland or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Bulgaria vs Iceland?

On our numbers Bulgaria have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Iceland 63%.

How many goals will there be in Bulgaria vs Iceland?

We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.

When is Bulgaria vs Iceland?

Bulgaria vs Iceland (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Friday 13 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time).

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.