Moldova
Kazakhstan
Moldova vs Kazakhstan prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.46 · bookmaker 1.44
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 57% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Moldova 1.2 – 1.3 Kazakhstan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Moldova and Kazakhstan on our numbers – 36% for the home side, 40% for the visitors and 24% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Moldova have taken 6 points from their last 6 matches (1W 3D 2L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.8 per game. Kazakhstan have 3 points from their last 6 (0W 3D 3L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.
We expect around 2.6 goals (1.2 for Moldova, 1.3 for Kazakhstan). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 57%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 0–1 (10%), 1–0 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Moldova have won 1, Kazakhstan have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 69% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.44 is close to our fair price of 1.46. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 2.10 is our value angle (57% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Kazakhstan to win | 40% | 2.52 | 2.75 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win | 76% | 1.32 | 1.36 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score | 57% | 1.77 | 2.10 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals | 69% | 1.46 | 1.44 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals | 57% | 1.76 | 1.53 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals | 77% | 1.30 | 1.17 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time | 43% | 2.30 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Kazakhstan / FT Kazakhstan | 22% | 4.49 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 | 10% | 9.84 | – |
Form
Moldova – last 6
| 6 Oct | vs Slovakia | 0–4 | L |
| 2 Oct | @ Kazakhstan | 2–1 | W |
| 29 Sep | vs Faroe Islands | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Sep | @ Slovakia | 0–2 | L |
| 9 Jun | @ Armenia | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Jun | vs Bulgaria | 2–2 | D |
Kazakhstan – last 6
| 6 Oct | vs Faroe Islands | 2–2 | D |
| 2 Oct | vs Moldova | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Sep | @ Slovakia | 1–2 | L |
| 26 Sep | @ Faroe Islands | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Jun | @ Hungary | 1–3 | L |
| 6 Jun | @ Armenia | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 2 Oct 2026 | Kazakhstan v Moldova | 1–2 |
More UEFA Nations League predictions
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Luxembourg
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Andorra
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Slovenia
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U3.5Under 3.5 goals
75%@1.25
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Moldova vs Kazakhstan?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Moldova vs Kazakhstan?
On our numbers Moldova have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Kazakhstan 40%.
How many goals will there be in Moldova vs Kazakhstan?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
When is Moldova vs Kazakhstan?
Moldova vs Kazakhstan (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Friday 13 November 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.