UEFA Nations League · Europe · Gradski Stadion

Montenegro

DWWWD
Thu 12 Nov 2026

Latvia

LLDLL

Montenegro vs Latvia prediction & analysis

73%
Footrivo pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.37 · bookmaker 1.33

8/10Rating
1.33Odds

Quick tips for this match

ResultMontenegro to win66% · @1.33
Double chanceMontenegro or draw88% · @1.05
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score50% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–015% · fair 6.85

Win chances

Montenegro66%fair 1.52 · @1.33
Draw22%fair 4.56 · @4.50
Latvia12%fair 8.08 · @8.00
2.55Expected goals
1.88Montenegro xG
0.68Latvia xG
50%Both score
49%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–015%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
3–09%
0–08%

From our goals model: Montenegro 1.9 – 0.7 Latvia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Montenegro are clear favourites at home with a 66% chance of winning, against 12% for Latvia.

Montenegro have taken 14 points from their last 6 matches (4W 2D 0L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.0 per game. Latvia have 4 points from their last 6 (1W 1D 4L), averaging 0.5 scored and 1.2 conceded. Montenegro come into this in clearly the better form.

We expect around 2.6 goals (1.9 for Montenegro, 0.7 for Latvia). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 50%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (15%), 2–0 (14%), 1–1 (10%).

In their last 1 meeting, Montenegro have won 1, Latvia have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 73% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.33 is close to our fair price of 1.37.

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultMontenegro to win66%1.521.33
Double chanceMontenegro or draw88%1.141.05
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score50%1.981.53
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals74%1.361.25
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals51%1.971.95
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals73%1.371.33
Half-time resultMontenegro ahead at half-time46%2.16–
Half-time / full-timeHT Montenegro / FT Montenegro42%2.38–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–015%6.85–

Form

Montenegro – last 6

DWWWDW
5 Octvs Armenia0–0D
2 Oct@ Latvia2–1W
28 Sep@ Armenia3–2W
25 Sepvs Cyprus2–1W
5 Jun@ Slovakia2–2D
1 Jun@ Bulgaria1–0W
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Latvia – last 6

LLDLLW
5 Oct@ Cyprus1–2L
2 Octvs Montenegro1–2L
28 Sepvs Cyprus0–0D
25 Sep@ Armenia0–2L
9 Junvs Faroe Islands0–1L
31 Marvs Gibraltar1–0W
0.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

2 Oct 2026Latvia v Montenegro1–2

More UEFA Nations League predictions

Türkiye Belgium 221958 2Belgium to win 58%@1.90 Armenia Cyprus 422335 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 77%@1.25 Italy France 241363 2France to win 63%@1.83 Czechia Spain 81874 O2.5Over 2.5 goals 63%@1.53 England Croatia 692110 O2.5Over 2.5 goals 69%@1.48 Albania Finland 572220 1XAlbania or draw 80%@1.20 San Marino Belarus 71578 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 62%@1.53

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Montenegro vs Latvia?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.

Who will win Montenegro vs Latvia?

On our numbers Montenegro have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Latvia 12%.

How many goals will there be in Montenegro vs Latvia?

We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.

When is Montenegro vs Latvia?

Montenegro vs Latvia (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Thursday 12 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Gradski Stadion.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.