England vs Croatia prediction & analysis

England are clear favourites at home with a 69% chance of winning, against 10% for Croatia.

England have taken 12 points from their last 6 matches (4W 0D 2L), scoring 3.5 and conceding 1.5 per game. Croatia have 6 points from their last 6 (2W 0D 4L), averaging 1.2 scored and 2.8 conceded. England come into this in clearly the better form.

We expect around 3.8 goals (2.7 for England, 1.1 for Croatia). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 2–1 (9%), 3–1 (8%), 2–0 (8%).

In their last 2 meetings, England have won 2, Croatia have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 6.5 goals per game.

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals at a 69% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.48 is close to our fair price of 1.46. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 1.91 is our value angle (58% on our numbers).