UEFA Nations League · Europe · San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza

Italy

WDWLW
Thu 12 Nov 2026

France

WDWWL

Italy vs France prediction & analysis

63%
Footrivo pick

France to win

Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.83

6/10Rating
1.83Odds

Quick tips for this match

ResultFrance to win63% · @1.83
Double chanceEither team to win87% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score62% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals79% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–110% · fair 9.54

Win chances

Italy24%fair 4.24 · @3.80
Draw13%fair 7.67 · @3.80
France63%fair 1.58 · @1.83
2.90Expected goals
0.99Italy xG
1.91France xG
62%Both score
57%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

0–110%
1–110%
0–210%
1–210%
0–36%
1–36%

From our goals model: Italy 1.0 – 1.9 France expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

France travel as clear favourites – 63% to win, against 24% for Italy.

Italy have taken 13 points from their last 6 matches (4W 1D 1L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 0.8 per game. France have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 1.8 scored and 1.7 conceded.

We expect around 2.9 goals (1.0 for Italy, 1.9 for France). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 0–1 (10%), 1–1 (10%), 0–2 (10%).

In their last 1 meeting, Italy have won 0, France have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.

Our pick is France to win at a 63% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.83 is better than our fair price of 1.58, so there is value in it.

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultFrance to win63%1.581.83 ▲
Double chanceEither team to win87%1.151.25 ▲
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score62%1.621.57
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals79%1.271.18
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals57%1.751.60
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals65%1.551.50
Half-time resultFrance ahead at half-time43%2.33–
Half-time / full-timeHT France / FT France37%2.69–
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–110%9.54–

Form

Italy – last 6

WDWLWW
5 Octvs Türkiye3–1W
2 Oct@ France1–1D
28 Sep@ Türkiye4–1W
25 Sepvs Belgium0–2L
7 Jun@ Greece1–0W
3 Jun@ Luxembourg1–0W
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

France – last 6

WDWWLL
5 Octvs Belgium4–1W
2 Octvs Italy1–1D
28 Sep@ Belgium1–0W
25 Sep@ Türkiye1–0W
18 Julvs England4–6L
14 Julvs Spain0–2L
1.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

2 Oct 2026France v Italy1–1

More UEFA Nations League predictions

Türkiye Belgium 221958 2Belgium to win 58%@1.90 Armenia Cyprus 422335 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 77%@1.25 Czechia Spain 81874 O2.5Over 2.5 goals 63%@1.53 England Croatia 692110 O2.5Over 2.5 goals 69%@1.48 Albania Finland 572220 1XAlbania or draw 80%@1.20 San Marino Belarus 71578 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 62%@1.53 Montenegro Latvia 662212 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 73%@1.33

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Italy vs France?

Our pick is France to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.83.

Who will win Italy vs France?

On our numbers Italy have a 24% chance of winning, the draw 13% and France 63%.

How many goals will there be in Italy vs France?

We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.

When is Italy vs France?

Italy vs France (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Thursday 12 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.