UEFA Nations League · Europe · San Marino Stadium

San Marino

LLLLL
Thu 12 Nov 2026

Belarus

WWDLD

San Marino vs Belarus prediction & analysis

62%
Footrivo pick

Under 3.5 goals

Good pick · fair odds 1.61 · bookmaker 1.53

5/10Rating
1.53Odds

Quick tips for this match

ResultBelarus to win78% · @1.12
Double chanceBelarus or draw93% · @1.01
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score53% · @1.36
GoalsOver 1.5 goals80% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–214% · fair 7.07

Win chances

San Marino7%fair 13.68 · @15.00
Draw15%fair 6.81 · @8.50
Belarus78%fair 1.28 · @1.12
3.05Expected goals
0.61San Marino xG
2.45Belarus xG
47%Both score
59%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

0–214%
0–112%
0–312%
1–29%
0–47%
1–17%

From our goals model: San Marino 0.6 – 2.4 Belarus expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Belarus travel as clear favourites – 78% to win, against 7% for San Marino.

San Marino have taken 0 points from their last 6 matches (0W 0D 6L), scoring 0.5 and conceding 3.3 per game. Belarus have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded. Belarus come into this in clearly the better form.

We expect around 3.1 goals (0.6 for San Marino, 2.4 for Belarus). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 0–2 (14%), 0–1 (12%), 0–3 (12%).

In their last 1 meeting, San Marino have won 0, Belarus have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 4.0 goals per game.

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 62% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.53 is close to our fair price of 1.61.

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultBelarus to win78%1.281.12
Double chanceBelarus or draw93%1.081.01
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score53%1.881.36
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals80%1.251.17
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals59%1.681.57
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals62%1.611.53
Half-time resultBelarus ahead at half-time57%1.76–
Half-time / full-timeHT Belarus / FT Belarus54%1.87–
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–214%7.07–

Form

San Marino – last 6

LLLLLL
6 Oct@ Albania1–2L
3 Oct@ Belarus0–4L
29 Sepvs Albania0–3L
26 Sepvs Finland0–7L
9 Jun@ Azerbaijan1–2L
5 Junvs Bangladesh1–2L
0.5Scored / game
3.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5

Belarus – last 6

WWDLDW
6 Octvs Finland1–0W
3 Octvs San Marino4–0W
29 Sep@ Finland0–0D
26 Sep@ Albania0–2L
9 Junvs Burkina Faso2–2D
5 Junvs Syria4–1W
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

3 Oct 2026Belarus v San Marino4–0

More UEFA Nations League predictions

Türkiye Belgium 221958 2Belgium to win 58%@1.90 Armenia Cyprus 422335 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 77%@1.25 Italy France 241363 2France to win 63%@1.83 Czechia Spain 81874 O2.5Over 2.5 goals 63%@1.53 England Croatia 692110 O2.5Over 2.5 goals 69%@1.48 Albania Finland 572220 1XAlbania or draw 80%@1.20 Montenegro Latvia 662212 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 73%@1.33

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for San Marino vs Belarus?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.

Who will win San Marino vs Belarus?

On our numbers San Marino have a 7% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Belarus 78%.

How many goals will there be in San Marino vs Belarus?

We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.

When is San Marino vs Belarus?

San Marino vs Belarus (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Thursday 12 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at San Marino Stadium.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.