UEFA Nations League · Europe · Arena Kombëtare

Albania

WLWWL
Thu 12 Nov 2026

Finland

LWDWL

Albania vs Finland prediction & analysis

80%
Footrivo pick

Albania or draw

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.20

9/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 53% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk.

Quick tips for this match

ResultAlbania to win57% · @1.80
Double chanceAlbania or draw80% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score53% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals77% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–013% · fair 7.58

Win chances

Albania57%fair 1.75 · @1.80
Draw22%fair 4.47 · @3.30
Finland20%fair 4.89 · @4.33
2.54Expected goals
1.67Albania xG
0.87Finland xG
53%Both score
44%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–013%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–08%
0–17%

From our goals model: Albania 1.7 – 0.9 Finland expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Albania hold the edge on home soil with a 57% chance of winning, against 20% for Finland.

Albania have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (3W 0D 3L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.8 per game. Finland have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.

We expect around 2.5 goals (1.7 for Albania, 0.9 for Finland). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 53%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (13%), 1–1 (11%), 2–0 (11%).

In their last 1 meeting, Albania have won 0, Finland have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.

Our pick is Albania or draw at a 80% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.26. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 2.10 is our value angle (53% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultAlbania to win57%1.751.80
Double chanceAlbania or draw80%1.261.20
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score53%1.872.10 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals69%1.451.40
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals56%1.781.60
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals77%1.301.20
Half-time resultLevel at half-time43%2.35–
Half-time / full-timeHT Albania / FT Albania35%2.90–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–013%7.58–

Form

Albania – last 6

WLWWLL
6 Octvs San Marino2–1W
3 Oct@ Finland1–2L
29 Sep@ San Marino3–0W
26 Sepvs Belarus2–0W
6 Junvs Luxembourg0–1L
3 Junvs Israel0–1L
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Finland – last 6

LWDWLL
6 Oct@ Belarus0–1L
3 Octvs Albania2–1W
29 Sepvs Belarus0–0D
26 Sep@ San Marino7–0W
5 Jun@ Hungary1–2L
31 May@ Germany0–4L
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

3 Oct 2026Finland v Albania2–1

More UEFA Nations League predictions

Türkiye Belgium 221958 2Belgium to win 58%@1.90 Armenia Cyprus 422335 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 77%@1.25 Italy France 241363 2France to win 63%@1.83 Czechia Spain 81874 O2.5Over 2.5 goals 63%@1.53 England Croatia 692110 O2.5Over 2.5 goals 69%@1.48 San Marino Belarus 71578 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 62%@1.53 Montenegro Latvia 662212 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 73%@1.33

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Albania vs Finland?

Our pick is Albania or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Albania vs Finland?

On our numbers Albania have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Finland 20%.

How many goals will there be in Albania vs Finland?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.

When is Albania vs Finland?

Albania vs Finland (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Thursday 12 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Arena Kombëtare.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.