Value bet: Orange County SC to win @ 3.20 – our chance 33% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPhoenix Rising to win ✓46% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.65
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.13
Phoenix Rising vs Orange County SC preview and prediction
The match
The USL League One Cup sees Phoenix Rising take on Orange County SC on Sunday 17 May, kicking off at 03:00 (WAT) at Wild Horse Pass Stadium. Phoenix Rising are 35th with 3 points from 4 games (in the bottom half), while Orange County SC sit 42nd on 0 points (in the bottom three). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Phoenix Rising's last 5: DWLWL Most recently they drew with San Antonio 1–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Orange County SC's last 5: DLLDW Most recently they drew with Colorado Springs 2–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 2 April 2026, finished Orange County SC 1–1 Phoenix Rising. Across their last 2 meetings Phoenix Rising have won 0, Orange County SC 0, with 2 draws and 2.0 goals per game; both teams scored in 2 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.3 for Phoenix Rising and 1.1 for Orange County SC. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 56%.
Value angle: Orange County SC to win at 3.20 – 33% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.35. Predicted score: Phoenix Rising 1–1 Orange County SC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Phoenix Rising46%fair 2.17 · @2.05
Draw21%fair 4.82 · @3.40
Orange County SC33%fair 3.01 · @3.20
2.37Expected goals
1.32Phoenix Rising xG
1.05Orange County SC xG
56%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–09%
2–19%
2–08%
From our goals model: Phoenix Rising 1.3 – 1.1 Orange County SC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Phoenix Rising vs Orange County SC?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Phoenix Rising vs Orange County SC?
On our numbers Phoenix Rising have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Orange County SC 33%.
How many goals will there be in Phoenix Rising vs Orange County SC?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Phoenix Rising vs Orange County SC?
Our predicted score is Phoenix Rising 1–1 Orange County SC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Phoenix Rising vs Orange County SC?
Phoenix Rising vs Orange County SC (USL League One Cup) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Wild Horse Pass Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
