Value bet: Monterey Bay to win @ 3.10 – our chance 35% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBoise to win ✓45% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.63
Boise vs Monterey Bay preview and prediction
The match
Boise host Monterey Bay in the USL League One Cup on Sunday 17 May, with kick-off at 02:00 (WAT). Boise are 12th with 9 points from 4 games (in the top half), while Monterey Bay sit 25th on 3 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Boise's last 5: WLWDW Most recently they beat Naples 2–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Monterey Bay's last 5: LLLDL Most recently they lost to Lexington 1–3 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Boise arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.3 for Boise and 1.1 for Monterey Bay. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Boise 45%, draw 20%, Monterey Bay 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.57.
Value angle: Monterey Bay to win at 3.10 – 35% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Boise 1–1 Monterey Bay. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Boise45%fair 2.23 · @2.05
Draw20%fair 4.89 · @3.50
Monterey Bay35%fair 2.88 · @3.10
2.43Expected goals
1.32Boise xG
1.11Monterey Bay xG
58%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–09%
2–19%
2–08%
From our goals model: Boise 1.3 – 1.1 Monterey Bay expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Boise to win✓
45%
2.23
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.26
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.97
2.05
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
72%
1.39
1.40
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Boise / FT Boise✗
24%
4.17
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.63
–
Form
Boise – last 6
WLWDWD
14 May
vs Naples
2–0
W
7 May
@ Charlotte Independence
0–1
L
3 May
vs Chattanooga Red Wolves
2–1
W
26 Apr
@ Las Vegas Lights
1–1
D
19 Apr
vs Westchester SC
4–0
W
12 Apr
@ Alta
2–2
D
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Monterey Bay – last 6
LLLDLD
9 May
@ Lexington
1–3
L
4 May
vs FC Tulsa
1–2
L
12 Apr
@ Indy Eleven
1–3
L
5 Apr
vs San Antonio
0–0
D
29 Mar
@ Las Vegas Lights
0–1
L
22 Mar
@ Sacramento Republic
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Boise and Monterey Bay.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Boise vs Monterey Bay?
On our numbers Boise have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Monterey Bay 35%.
How many goals will there be in Boise vs Monterey Bay?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Boise vs Monterey Bay?
Our predicted score is Boise 1–1 Monterey Bay, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Boise vs Monterey Bay?
Boise vs Monterey Bay (USL League One Cup) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
