Value bet: Sporting JAX to win @ 2.55 – our chance 47% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultSporting JAX to win ✗47% · @2.55
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 9.91
Naples vs Sporting JAX preview and prediction
The match
Sporting JAX travel to Paradise Coast Sports Complex in the USL League One Cup on Sunday 17 May (22:00 WAT) to face Naples. Naples are 37th with 3 points from 4 games (in the bottom half), while Sporting JAX sit 27th on 3 points (in the bottom half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Naples's last 5: LLLLW Most recently they lost to Boise 0–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Sporting JAX's last 5: WLLLL Most recently they beat Sarasota Paradise 2–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Naples arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.2 for Naples and 1.5 for Sporting JAX. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 57%.
Value angle: Sporting JAX to win at 2.55 – 47% on our numbers against 39% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Naples 1–1 Sporting JAX. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Naples32%fair 3.09 · @2.40
Draw21%fair 4.86 · @3.45
Sporting JAX47%fair 2.13 · @2.55
2.71Expected goals
1.19Naples xG
1.51Sporting JAX xG
57%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–08%
0–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Naples 1.2 – 1.5 Sporting JAX expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sporting JAX to win✗
47%
2.13
2.55 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
79%
1.26
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.95
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.35
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sporting JAX / FT Sporting JAX✗
27%
3.77
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
9.91
–
Form
Naples – last 6
LLLLWW
14 May
@ Boise
0–2
L
3 May
vs One Knoxville
0–3
L
30 Apr
@ Miami FC
1–4
L
16 Apr
vs Orlando City SC
0–1
L
12 Apr
vs Sarasota Paradise
2–0
W
5 Apr
vs Greenville Triumph
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Sporting JAX – last 6
WLLLLL
14 May
@ Sarasota Paradise
2–0
W
10 May
@ Indy Eleven
1–2
L
3 May
@ Charleston Battery
0–4
L
26 Apr
vs Miami FC
0–1
L
5 Apr
vs Tampa Bay Rowdies
0–1
L
29 Mar
@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds
2–3
L
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Naples and Sporting JAX.
What is the prediction for Naples vs Sporting JAX?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Naples vs Sporting JAX?
On our numbers Naples have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Sporting JAX 47%.
How many goals will there be in Naples vs Sporting JAX?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Naples vs Sporting JAX?
Our predicted score is Naples 1–1 Sporting JAX, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Naples vs Sporting JAX?
Naples vs Sporting JAX (USL League One Cup) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at Paradise Coast Sports Complex.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
